Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix A-League prediction & result
Final score: Newcastle Jets 0-3 Wellington Phoenix.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Newcastle Jets, 24% draw, 30% Wellington Phoenix — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Newcastle Jets at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
Line-ups
- 1James Nicholas DelianovG
- 64Jesse HillD
- 5Joe ShaughnessyD
- 2Alex GrantD
- 23Daniel WilmeringD
- 52Nicholas BadolatoM
- 10Zach CloughM
- 28Will DobsonM
- 24Alex Diogo NunesM
- 17Ethan DebonoM
- 9Nikolaos VergosF
- 22Joel BertolissioD
- 43Xavier BertoncelloF
- 19Alexander BadolatoM
- 14Max BurgessM
- 11Joe LolleyF
- 40Jordan BaylisG
- 39Thomas Kevin AquilinaD
- 13Henry GrayG
- 27Matthew SheridanD
- 28Bill TuilomaD
- 18Lukas Kelly-HealdD
- 23James McGarryD
- 7Bryce DukeM
- 8Max AndersonM
- 14Alex RuferM
- 25Kazuki NagasawaM
- 99Corban PiperF
- 9Rafael DuranF
- 17Nathan WalkerF
- 35Luke MitchellM
- 11Riley BidoisF
- 30Alby Kelly-HealdG
- 24Tze-xuan LokeF
- 34Dylan GardinerD
- 5Walter ScottD
Form going into Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets
A-League
- D1-1Macarthur FC24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Central Coast Mariners17 October 2026
Wellington Phoenix
A-League
- W2-0Central Coast Mariners25 October 2026
- W2-1Melbourne Victory18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
- 23 January 2026Newcastle Jets 4–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 14 December 2025Wellington Phoenix 1–3 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 6 April 2025Newcastle Jets 1–2 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 28 December 2024Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 17 September 2024Wellington Phoenix 0–1 Newcastle JetsFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2024Newcastle Jets 1–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
Leading scorers: Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets
No player in A-League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Wellington Phoenix
GoalsAssists
- C. Piper30
- R. Bidois20
- N. Walker11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wellington Phoenix won 3–0 at Newcastle Jets. The model had leaned towards a win for Newcastle Jets at 46% and given a win for Wellington Phoenix 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: C. Piper 14' for Wellington Phoenix, R. Bidois 87' for Wellington Phoenix, N. Walker 90+3' for Wellington Phoenix.
How the call on Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 54% / 22% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 46% / 24% / 30%: the biggest move is Newcastle Jets's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Newcastle Jets win46%▼ −8
- Draw24%▲ +2
- Wellington Phoenix win30%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.