17 October 2026, 22:20 UTC

Olimpia vs 2 de Mayo Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb
Referee: B. Romero
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Olimpia 3-0 2 de Mayo.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Olimpia, 27% draw, 22% 2 de Mayo — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Olimpia at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Olimpia99%Draw1%2 de Mayo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gabriel Ávalosassist: Richard Ortiz
6'
Juan Fernando Alfaro
27'
🔁Juan Veraout: Gustavo David Vargas Areco
32'
45'
🔁Luis Delgadilloout: Tobías Sanabria Panotto
51'
Alexis Fariña
57'
🔁Alberto Espinolaout: Alexis Villalba
🔁Sebastián Ferreiraout: Bernardo Romeo Benitez Farina
57'
64'
🔁Alexis Fariñaout: F. Cáceres
64'
🔁Pedro Delvalleout: Tobías Gabriel Portillo Ávalos
68'
Ó. Romero
🔁Gabriel Ávalosout: Tiago Caballero
68'
🔁Eduardo Delmasout: Franco Alfonso
68'
🔁Juan Fernando Alfaroout: Rodney Redes
69'
82'
🔁Tobias Cerveraout: Jorge Sanguina
⚽Mateo Gamarraassist: Fernando Cardozo
85'
Tiago Caballero
88'
90'
Pedro·Sosa
⚽Rodney Redes
90+4'

Match stats — Olimpia vs 2 de Mayo

54%Possession46%
21Shots12
10On target4
3Corners4
3xG1.06

Goals against chances

Olimpia3 from 3.00 xGabout what the chances were worth
2 de Mayo0 from 1.06 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Olimpia 4-1-3-2
  • 1G. OlveiraG
  • 27R. CáceresD
  • 22J. VeraD
  • 15M. GamarraD
  • 23E. MatusD
  • 6R. OrtizM
  • 7F. CardozoM
  • 5J. AlfaroM
  • 20E. DelmásM
  • 11S. FerreiraF
  • 9G. ÁvalosF
Substitutes
  • 8A. FrancoM
  • 2B. BentaberryD
  • 24T. CaballeroF
  • 29I. LeguizamónM
  • 12S. LentinellyG
  • 17R. RedesF
  • 37R. BenitezM
  • 14G. VargasD
  • 26R. SánchezM
Coach: P. Sánchez
2 de Mayo 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. LerdaG
  • 23A. EspínolaD
  • 21P. SosaD
  • 6C. RamírezD
  • 19C. CastroD
  • 24Ó. RomeroM
  • 37L. DelgadilloM
  • 10A. GómezM
  • 30A. FariñaM
  • 17P. DelvalleM
  • 25A. CerveraF
Substitutes
  • 32Mario RamírezG
  • 22T. PortilloF
  • 2Rodrigo Antonio Gómez VillalbaD
  • 40Marcelo GonzálezF
  • 20E. DíazM
  • 7F. CáceresF
  • 11U. CoronelD
  • 8Á. AguileraM
  • 5C. SaizD
Coach: Eduardo Ledesma

Form going into Olimpia vs 2 de Mayo

Olimpia

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Rubio NU11 October 2026
  • D1-1Nacional Asuncion6 October 2026

2 de Mayo

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Sportivo Ameliano12 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Cerro Porteno5 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Olimpia1913333714+2342
62 de Mayo198651821-330

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Olimpia vs 2 de Mayo

  • 8 August 20262 de Mayo 1–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 28 March 2026Olimpia 4–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 28 January 20262 de Mayo 1–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 26 November 2025Olimpia 3–3 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 7 September 20252 de Mayo 3–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura

Leading scorers: Olimpia and 2 de Mayo

Olimpia

GoalsAssists

  • G. Ávalos83
  • A. Alcaraz71
  • R. Benitez43

2 de Mayo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Acosta51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Olimpia beat 2 de Mayo 3–0. The model had made a win for Olimpia its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gabriel Ávalos 6' for Olimpia, Mateo Gamarra 85' for Olimpia, Rodney Redes 90+4' for Olimpia. On expected goals it finished 3.00–1.06.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Olimpia a 31.5% chance to win the league: 41.9% after a win, 21.8% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.9%, 10.4 points higher than before the match.

For 2 de Mayo the question was the chance to win the league, 15.5% going in: 32.0% after a win, 15.8% after a draw, 8.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.9%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.