18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Čelik vs Zrinjski Premijer Liga prediction & result

Bilino Polje, Zenica
Referee: H. Halkic
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Čelik 0-3 Zrinjski.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Čelik, 25% draw, 50% Zrinjski — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zrinjski at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Čelik0%Draw1%Zrinjski99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Dževad Sijamija
14'
Faruk Gogić
33'
Faruk Gogić
37'
Faruk Gogić
37'
41'
Karlo Abramović
58'
⚽Nemanja Bilbijaassist: Mario Ćuže
🔁Aldin Hrvanovićout: Joseph Amoah
58'
🔁Oliver Šarkićout: Samy Faraj
58'
Joseph Amoah
62'
64'
⚽Antonio Ilićassist: Nemanja Bilbija
🔁Anes Mašićout: Eldar Sivac
69'
🔁Halid Šabanovićout: Dejan Vidić
69'
🔁Marin Popovićout: Nedim Smajlović
76'
76'
🔁Mario Čuićout: Viktor Grbić
76'
🔁Marko Vranjkovićout: Dan Lagumdzija
76'
🔁Karlo Abramovićout: Ivica Vidović
78'
Viktor Grbić
85'
🔁Mario Ćužeout: Stefan Cvetković
90+2'
⚽Nemanja Bilbijaassist: Antonio Ilić
90'
🔁Nemanja Bilbijaout: Hamza Ljukovac

Match stats — Čelik vs Zrinjski

42%Possession58%
2On target6
2Corners3

Line-ups

Čelik 4-2-3-1
  • 1Arman ŠutkovićG
  • 24Halid ŠabanovićD
  • 17Albin OmićM
  • 4Kenan HorićD
  • 15Marin PopovićM
  • 18Oliver ŠarkićM
  • 8Andres MohedanoM
  • 14Aldin HrvanovićM
  • 88Faruk GogićM
  • 7Dževad SijamijaF
  • 99Anes MašićF
Substitutes
  • 28Joseph AmoahM
  • 77Samy FarajM
  • 21Eldar SivacD
  • 9Dejan VidićF
  • 19Nedim SmajlovićD
  • 12Vladimir SavićG
  • 27Amer MašetićD
  • 2Amer HodžićD
  • 22Eman BabićM
Zrinjski 4-2-3-1
  • 18Goran KaračićG
  • 19Marko VranjkovićD
  • 6Igor SavićM
  • 15Karlo StapićD
  • 12Petar MamićD
  • 20Antonio IvančićM
  • 10Mario ČuićM
  • 77Karlo AbramovićM
  • 17Antonio IlićM
  • 25Mario ĆužeM
  • 99Nemanja BilbijaF
Substitutes
  • 21Viktor GrbićD
  • 8Ivica VidovićM
  • 5Dan LagumdzijaM
  • 26Stefan CvetkovićM
  • 80Hamza LjukovacM
  • 31Zvonimir ŠubarićG
  • 40Branko ĆurdoD
  • 24Toma PalićD
  • 27Slobodan JakovljevićD

Form going into Čelik vs Zrinjski

Čelik

Premijer Liga

  • D0-0FK Sarajevo11 October 2026

Zrinjski

Premijer Liga

  • W6-2away to Sloga Doboj11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premijer Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Čelik132561420-611
1Zrinjski131111317+2434

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Čelik vs Zrinjski

  • 9 August 2026Zrinjski 2–1 ČelikPremijer Liga
  • 2 November 2023Čelik 0–6 ZrinjskiCup
  • 23 February 2020Čelik 0–2 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga
  • 22 September 2019Zrinjski 3–0 ČelikPremijer Liga
  • 11 May 2019Čelik 0–1 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga

Leading scorers: Čelik and Zrinjski

Čelik

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hrvanović22
  • Anes Mašić11

Zrinjski

GoalsAssists

  • A. Ilic31
  • N. Bilbija31
  • M. Ćuže20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zrinjski won 3–0 at Čelik. The model had made a win for Zrinjski its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nemanja Bilbija 58' for Zrinjski, Antonio Ilić 64' for Zrinjski, Nemanja Bilbija 90+2' for Zrinjski. Sent off: Faruk Gogić (Čelik) 37'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Čelik a 28.3% chance to finish in the top four: 35.7% after a win, 28.5% after a draw, 24.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.4%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.

For Zrinjski the question was the chance to win the league, 51.0% going in: 54.9% after a win, 49.6% after a draw, 43.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.9%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Čelik v Zrinjski has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 28% / 28% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 25% / 25% / 50%: the biggest move is Zrinjski's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Čelik win25%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Zrinjski win50%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.