Bucaramanga vs America de Cali Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Bucaramanga 1-1 America de Cali.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Bucaramanga, 30% draw, 29% America de Cali — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bucaramanga at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bucaramanga vs America de Cali
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25C. FiermarínG
- 24J. OrtizD
- 23C. RomañaD
- 4J. GarcíaD
- 6N. CastrillónM
- 21F. CharrupíM
- 28L. FloresM
- 8F. HinestrozaM
- 10F. SambuezaF
- 27L. PonsF
- 17E. BatallaF
- 9B. CaicedoF
- 80O. AlbornozD
- 30V. CantilloM
- 19A. GutiérrezD
- 5A. MurriloF
- 12D. NovoaG
- 11F. SalazarF
- 18Emmanuel LargachaD
- 20A. ZárateF
- 1JeanG
- 18Y. QuinteroD
- 2M. TorresD
- 22N. HernándezD
- 14M. MinaD
- 15R. CarrascalM
- 5J. EscobarM
- 23L. QuiñonesM
- 10Y. GuzmánM
- 7J. MurilloM
- 9J. ValenciaF
- 29C. AmuM
- 30O. BertelD
- 44B. CórdobaD
- 17J. LucumíF
- 33Johán BalantaM
- 12J. MontoyaG
- 88T. PalaciosF
- 77E. TortoleroM
- 21T. ÁngelF
Form going into Bucaramanga vs America de Cali
Bucaramanga
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Águilas Doradas13 October 2026
- W3-1Junior4 October 2026
- W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026
- W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026
America de Cali
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Independiente Medellin12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros5 October 2026
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
What these results say
- Bucaramanga went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Bucaramanga scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bucaramanga won 3 of these 4 matches.
- America de Cali scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- America de Cali conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for America de Cali.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 31 | 17 | +14 | 35 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 15 | +16 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs America de Cali
- 2 April 2026America de Cali 2–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 6 March 2026America de Cali 2–1 BucaramangaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 16 September 2025America de Cali 0–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 3 September 2025America de Cali 2–0 BucaramangaCopa Colombia
- 27 August 2025Bucaramanga 1–0 America de CaliCopa Colombia
- 3 February 2025Bucaramanga 0–4 America de CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and America de Cali
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons155
- E. Batalla126
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán206
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bucaramanga and America de Cali drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bucaramanga at 41% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Luciano Pons 47' for Bucaramanga, Yani Quintero 71' for America de Cali. Sent off: Carlos Romaña (Bucaramanga) 26'. On expected goals it finished 0.72–1.07.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bucaramanga a 69.4% chance to finish in the top four: 82.9% after a win, 65.9% after a draw, 55.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 65.9%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
For America de Cali the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura, 21.0% going in: 36.5% after a win, 19.5% after a draw, 9.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 19.5%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bucaramanga v America de Cali has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 37% / 32% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is Bucaramanga's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Bucaramanga win41%▲ +4
- Draw30%▼ −2
- America de Cali win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.