Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Cristal 4-2 Comerciantes Unidos.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Sporting Cristal, 24% draw, 20% Comerciantes Unidos — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting Cristal at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. EnríquezG
- 8L. SosaD
- 20M. AraujoD
- 5R. LutigerD
- 90Cris SilvaD
- 6A. ÁlvarezM
- 19Y. YotúnM
- 7S. GonzálezM
- 16L. IbericoM
- 23M. CastroM
- 22M. HoyosF
- 96L. AbramD
- 29H. BarcosF
- 33C. BautistaG
- 11I. ÁvilaF
- 21C. CabellosM
- 77J. CuestaF
- 18J. GonzálezD
- 27GabrielM
- 25G. TávaraM
- 17Matías CordovaG
- 32J. SánchezD
- 40F. AlcedoD
- 6J. RodriguezD
- 19D. LinoD
- 54Y. GameroM
- 20J. ParodiM
- 4A. Martín AriasM
- 50J. OlivaresM
- 25Rodrigo Gary Vilca BetettaM
- 9M. SenF
- 11J. HerreraM
- 28O. PintoM
- 18A. RodríguezM
- 14Thiago SalinasM
- 13M. PérezF
- 30P. GuzmánD
- 15A. CossioD
- 99José Pablo Alejandro Charún ValdezG
- 10M. CarpioM
Form going into Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos
Sporting Cristal
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to UTC Cajamarca11 October 2026
Comerciantes Unidos
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Juan Pablo II College10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 48 | +15 | 51 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos
- 25 April 2026Comerciantes Unidos 1–0 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 1 November 2025Comerciantes Unidos 1–4 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 29 June 2025Sporting Cristal 2–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 3 November 2024Sporting Cristal 3–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
- 25 May 2024Comerciantes Unidos 0–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 30 September 2018Sporting Cristal 0–2 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
Leading scorers: Sporting Cristal and Comerciantes Unidos
Sporting Cristal
GoalsAssists
- H. Barcos134
- L. Iberico110
Comerciantes Unidos
GoalsAssists
- M. Sen113
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting Cristal beat Comerciantes Unidos 4–2. The model had made a win for Sporting Cristal its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Luis Iberico 35' for Sporting Cristal, Josuee Herrera 56' for Comerciantes Unidos, Luis Iberico 64' for Sporting Cristal, Hernán Barcos 71' for Sporting Cristal, Matías Eric Sen (penalty) 84' for Comerciantes Unidos, Hernán Barcos 90+4' for Sporting Cristal. On expected goals it finished 1.55–2.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sporting Cristal a 10.4% chance to finish in the top four: 14.0% after a win, 5.1% after a draw, 2.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.0%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
For Comerciantes Unidos the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.9% going in: 1.4% after a win, 4.3% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.4%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sporting Cristal v Comerciantes Unidos has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 56% / 24% / 20%: the biggest move is Sporting Cristal's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Sporting Cristal win56%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Comerciantes Unidos win20%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.