Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Medellin 0-2 Once Caldas.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Independiente Medellin, 27% draw, 24% Once Caldas — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Independiente Medellin at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. IchazoG
- 30H. PalaciosD
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 5J. VarelaD
- 18F. FabraD
- 16H. LoboaM
- 6D. MorenoM
- 26E. MenaM
- 21A. MarteganiM
- 20J. MontañoM
- 11Y. GonzálezF
- 90E. LarrosaF
- 32C. LucumiF
- 4K. MantillaD
- 31D. MorenoM
- 14B. PerlazaM
- 34K. KlingerM
- 24N. ErazoM
- 25E. ChauxG
- 10D. CatañoM
- 99J. ParraG
- 22J. CuestaD
- 2J. CardonaD
- 30D. LondoñoD
- 33J. PatiñoD
- 5J. NietoM
- 9Pipe GómezM
- 7M. BarriosM
- 42J. QuiñónesM
- 23A. ColoradoM
- 14J. ZapataF
- 15J. AlvaradoM
- 12J. CamargoG
- 16J. CastañoD
- 20A. RoaM
- 29E. TorresF
- 19T. GarcíaM
- 21H. GuzmanF
- 17D. MorenoF
- 18J. RiquettD
Form going into Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
Independiente Medellin
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to America de Cali12 October 2026
- L0-1Santa Fe6 October 2026
- D2-2Millonarios30 September 2026
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
- W2-1Jaguares22 September 2026
Once Caldas
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Llaneros10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional de Bogota4 October 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Pasto20 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente Medellin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Once Caldas failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Once Caldas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Once Caldas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 32 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
- 3 April 2026Once Caldas 1–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 13 October 2025Once Caldas 1–5 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 20 April 2025Independiente Medellin 2–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 28 September 2024Once Caldas 0–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 17 March 2024Independiente Medellin 1–2 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 1 October 2023Once Caldas 2–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
Leading scorers: Independiente Medellin and Once Caldas
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Once Caldas
GoalsAssists
- D. Moreno171
- J. Zapata133
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Once Caldas won 2–0 at Independiente Medellin. The model had leaned towards a win for Independiente Medellin at 49% and given a win for Once Caldas 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jefry Zapata 35' for Once Caldas, Michael Barrios 65' for Once Caldas. On expected goals it finished 0.42–0.61.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Independiente Medellin a 25.4% chance to finish in the top four: 33.2% after a win, 17.2% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.9%, 14.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Independiente Medellin v Once Caldas has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Independiente Medellin's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Independiente Medellin win49%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Once Caldas win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.