Deportivo Cali vs Junior Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Cali 0-0 Junior.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Deportivo Cali, 29% draw, 22% Junior — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Deportivo Cali at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Cali vs Junior
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. GalleseG
- 27F. ViáfaraD
- 12J. CalderaD
- 4Fernando Antonio Álvarez AmadorD
- 28E. VelascoD
- 21N. BenedettiM
- 8D. GiraldoM
- 19J. MartínezM
- 10E. ReynosoM
- 20E. BelloM
- 9J. DinennoF
- 26J. TelloD
- 14A. Castillo ManyomaM
- 45M. BoteroF
- 70C. BaccaF
- 13R. PájaroD
- 38A. RodríguezG
- 23S. RodríguezF
- 16K. SandovalD
- 29Kevin CaicedoM
- 1M. SilveiraG
- 34Daniel SocarrasD
- 5D. RiveraD
- 23P. OrtízD
- 26Y. SúarezD
- 80F. ÁngelM
- 14J. RíosM
- 77C. BarriosM
- 8Y. CharáM
- 18K. PérezM
- 19F. FydriszewskiF
- 28G. CelisM
- 29T. GutiérrezF
- 30J. MartínezG
- 10L. MurielF
- 24J. PestañaD
- 7H. RiveraM
- 20J. SarmientoM
- 25D. CaicedoF
- 38Andrés ShmalbachM
Form going into Deportivo Cali vs Junior
Deportivo Cali
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira10 October 2026
- W3-1Alianza Valledupar3 October 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Santa Fe23 September 2026
Junior
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Deportivo Pereira14 October 2026
- D2-2Internacional de Bogota10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Bucaramanga4 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Nacional1 October 2026
- W2-0Independiente Medellin27 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Cali went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Cali won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Cali scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Junior scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Junior failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Junior conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 35 |
| 14 | Junior | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Cali vs Junior
- 4 April 2026Junior 1–2 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 13 July 2025Deportivo Cali 0–2 JuniorPrimera A
- 26 January 2025Junior 0–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 15 November 2024Junior 3–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 28 April 2024Deportivo Cali 0–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 3 December 2023Deportivo Cali 0–2 JuniorPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Cali and Junior
Deportivo Cali
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez113
Junior
GoalsAssists
- L. Muriel163
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Deportivo Cali and Junior drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo Cali at 49% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. Sent off: Francisco Fydriszewski (Junior) 64'. On expected goals it finished 1.46–0.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Cali a 62.7% chance to finish in the top four: 73.7% after a win, 54.6% after a draw, 44.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 54.6%, 8.1 points lower than before the match.
For Junior the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.9% going in: 2.9% after a win, 7.7% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.7%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Deportivo Cali v Junior has moved
First published on 5 Oct at 45% / 30% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 29% / 22%: the biggest move is Deportivo Cali's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Deportivo Cali win49%▲ +4
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Junior win22%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.