AC Milan vs Atalanta Serie A prediction & result
Final score: AC Milan 3-2 Atalanta.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% AC Milan, 29% draw, 30% Atalanta — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
AC Milan at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AC Milan vs Atalanta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16M. MaignanG
- 34Mario GilaD
- 5K. De WinterD
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 21S. ChukwuezeM
- 80Y. MusahM
- 14L. ModrićM
- 22Diego MoreiraM
- 12A. RabiotF
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 11C. PulišićF
- 35V. VladimirovD
- 96L. TorrianiG
- 23F. TomoriD
- 42F. TerraccianoD
- 8R. Loftus-CheekM
- 30A. JashariM
- 20O. HutchinsonF
- 2P. EstupiñánD
- 13S. BocoumD
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 23S. KolašinacD
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 90N. KrstovićF
- 11J. RoweF
- 70G. GaetanoM
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 41J. IdeleM
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 53M. PlaiaD
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 57M. SportielloG
- 59N. ZalewskiM
Form going into AC Milan vs Atalanta
AC Milan
All competitions we cover
- W4-0away to Red Bull Salzburg15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sassuolo11 October 2026
- W3-0Lecce20 September 2026
- L0-2Benfica16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
Atalanta
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Pafos15 October 2026
- W3-1Venezia12 October 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
What these results say
- AC Milan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atalanta had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 24 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Atalanta
- 10 May 2026AC Milan 2–3 AtalantaSerie A
- 28 October 2025Atalanta 1–1 AC MilanSerie A
- 20 April 2025AC Milan 0–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 6 December 2024Atalanta 2–1 AC MilanSerie A
- 25 February 2024AC Milan 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 10 January 2024AC Milan 1–2 AtalantaCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: AC Milan and Atalanta
AC Milan
GoalsAssists
- A. Rabiot54
- A. Cissè50
- Diego Moreira43
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AC Milan beat Atalanta 3–2. The model had made a win for AC Milan its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gonçalo Ramos (penalty) 24' for AC Milan, Adrien Rabiot 43' for AC Milan, Mario Gila 57' for AC Milan, Gianluca Gaetano 66' for Atalanta, Nikola Krstović 81' for Atalanta. On expected goals it finished 2.49–1.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave AC Milan a 36.3% chance to finish in the top four: 42.2% after a win, 34.4% after a draw, 29.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.2%, 5.9 points higher than before the match.
For Atalanta the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 19.3% going in: 24.0% after a win, 19.0% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.5%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on AC Milan v Atalanta has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is AC Milan's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- AC Milan win41%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Atalanta win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.