Llaneros vs Santa Fe Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Llaneros 1-0 Santa Fe.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Llaneros, 31% draw, 38% Santa Fe — fair odds of 3.23, 3.23 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Santa Fe at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Llaneros vs Santa Fe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22R. RomañaG
- 4J. PertúzD
- 2H. MenaD
- 26D. QuinteroD
- 16J. EscobarD
- 8J. RamÃrezM
- 13J. CastillaM
- 10N. OspinaM
- 14Kevin RincónM
- 7L. MirandaM
- 17Y. MenaF
- 32F. CastañedaF
- 20B. ChuriM
- 70J. ContrerasF
- 9C. CortésF
- 12J. LoaizaG
- 94J. MedrandaD
- 33K. OsorioM
- 6Marlon Ricardo Sierra ZamoraM
- 3V. Mesalles VidalD
- 12W. AsprillaG
- 13H. PalaciosD
- 18E. OliveraD
- 15I. ScarpetaD
- 32C. MaflaD
- 77J. ObrianM
- 16D. TorresM
- 7J. TorresM
- 10A. ZapataM
- 9F. FagúndezF
- 11H. RodallegaF
- 25E. RodríguezM
- 4M. PuertaD
- 39Cristhian PortocarreroM
- 14L. PalaciosF
- 21E. MurilloM
- 17M. LoveraF
- 31J. EspitiaG
- 43J. CaicedoD
- 6K. ToscanoF
Form going into Llaneros vs Santa Fe
Llaneros
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Once Caldas10 October 2026
- L1-2America de Cali5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Cucuta26 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Nacional21 September 2026
Santa Fe
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Independiente Medellin6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
What these results say
- Llaneros failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Llaneros scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Llaneros conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Llaneros | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 24 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 18 | +12 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Llaneros vs Santa Fe
- 1 April 2026Santa Fe 0–1 LlanerosPrimera A
- 12 October 2025Santa Fe 1–3 LlanerosPrimera A
- 1 May 2025Llaneros 0–1 Santa FePrimera A
Leading scorers: Llaneros and Santa Fe
Llaneros
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega173
- F. Fagúndez105
- N. Bustos105
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Llaneros beat Santa Fe 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Santa Fe at 38% and given a win for Llaneros 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Carlos Cortés 71' for Llaneros. On expected goals it finished 1.82–1.37.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Llaneros a 2.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 1.7% after a draw, 3.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
For Santa Fe the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 51.6% going in: 66.3% after a win, 46.5% after a draw, 36.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.2%, 15.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Llaneros v Santa Fe has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 33% / 31% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 31% / 38%: the biggest move is Llaneros's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Llaneros win31%▼ −2
- Draw31%=
- Santa Fe win38%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.