Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Águilas Doradas 2-1 Deportes Tolima.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Águilas Doradas, 31% draw, 32% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Águilas Doradas at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. SotoG
- 26D. LozanoD
- 4A. MosqueraD
- 3J. OntanedaD
- 32J. MenaD
- 19F. LozanoM
- 6I. RojasM
- 9A. VásquezM
- 8A. RicaurteM
- 16M. RamírezM
- 10Junior Alexander Noguera MachucaF
- 28S. RodríguezD
- 29T. BlandonF
- 7Eduar ArízalasF
- 18A. CarreñoF
- 12Juan HurtadoG
- 30N. LaraD
- 27C. LondonoM
- 25J. RoaM
- 24J. ÁvaloM
- 1Neto VolpiG
- 3J. AnguloD
- 71Y. OsorioD
- 2A. AnguloD
- 20J. HernándezD
- 8E. ValenciaM
- 14H. MartínezM
- 80B. RoviraM
- 28E. LópezM
- 24A. ParraF
- 9L. SandovalF
- 23G. BalantaG
- 7J. CabezasF
- 18K. FlórezF
- 19Joven SantiagoF
- 33J. MosqueraD
- 4D. PedrozoD
- 16V. ReyesM
- 15Sergio AguayoF
- 11J. ValenciaF
Form going into Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
Águilas Doradas
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Bucaramanga13 October 2026
- D2-2away to Alianza Valledupar9 October 2026
- W2-0Jaguares3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Deportivo Cali28 September 2026
- L0-1away to America de Cali24 September 2026
Deportes Tolima
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Jaguares11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Nacional8 October 2026
- D0-0Chico3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
What these results say
- Águilas Doradas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Águilas Doradas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Águilas Doradas had two goals or fewer.
- Deportes Tolima did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 25 |
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
- 1 April 2026Deportes Tolima 4–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 14 November 2025Águilas Doradas 1–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 25 May 2025Deportes Tolima 1–2 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 2 November 2024Águilas Doradas 0–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 12 April 2024Deportes Tolima 2–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 2 December 2023Deportes Tolima 0–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima
Águilas Doradas
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Águilas Doradas beat Deportes Tolima 2–1. The model had made a win for Águilas Doradas its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Matías Ramírez 14' for Águilas Doradas, Adrián Parra 24' for Deportes Tolima, Jorge Soto (penalty) 90+4' for Águilas Doradas. On expected goals it finished 1.41–0.50.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportes Tolima a 1.6% chance to finish in the top four: 3.6% after a win, under 1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Águilas Doradas v Deportes Tolima has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 34% / 31% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 37% / 31% / 32%: the biggest move is Águilas Doradas's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Águilas Doradas win37%▲ +3
- Draw31%=
- Deportes Tolima win32%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Águilas Doradas's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Deportes Tolima's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.