3 November 2026, 01:15 UTC

Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional Primera A prediction & result

Bucaramanga
Referee: A. Ospina
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Bucaramanga 1-1 Atletico Nacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Bucaramanga, 29% draw, 36% Atletico Nacional — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Nacional at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bucaramanga3%Draw93%Atletico Nacional4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽E. Cardona (pen)
🔁N. Castrillonout: A. Gutierrez
22'
F. Sambueza
24'
24'
A. Sarmiento
26'
W. Tesillo
🔁Fabryout: A. Zarate
34'
42'
E. Cardona
58'
🔁J. Zapataout: E. Cabrera
58'
🔁E. Cardonaout: J. Rengifo
58'
🔁A. Sarmientoout: A. Morelos
J. Garcia
59'
66'
🔁R. Escorciaout: E. Benitez
L. Pons
70'
71'
N. Rodriguez
74'
X. Rios
⚽L. Pons (pen)
75'
79'
🔁N. Rodriguezout: Y. A. Perlaza Perea
A. Gutierrez
83'
🔁J. Garciaout: B. Caicedo
85'
🔁L. Ponsout: A. Murrilo
85'
🔁E. Batallaout: K. Londono
85'
90+4'
J. Rengifo

Match stats — Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional

46%Possession54%
12Shots13
4On target7
7Corners2
1.27xG1.68

Goals against chances

Bucaramanga1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
Atletico Nacional1 from 1.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bucaramanga 4-3-3
  • 25Cristopher FiermarínG
  • 6Nilson CastrillónD
  • 23Carlos RomañaD
  • 24José OrtizD
  • 4José GarcíaD
  • 21Felix CharrupíM
  • 22Fabry CastroM
  • 28Leonardo FloresM
  • 10Fabián SambuezaF
  • 27Luciano PonsF
  • 17Emerson BatallaF
Substitutes
  • 19Aldair GutiérrezD
  • 20Aldair ZárateF
  • 7Kevin LondoñoM
  • 9Brandon CaicedoF
  • 5Adrián MurilloF
  • 8Freddy HinestrozaM
  • 30Víctor CantilloM
  • 32Nilzo RamírezM
  • 61Andrés GómezG
Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
  • 34Franco ArmaniG
  • 31Xavi RiosD
  • 15Andres ReyesD
  • 16William TesilloD
  • 20Milton CascoD
  • 26Felipe MarinM
  • 80Juan ZapataM
  • 13Nicolás RodríguezM
  • 10Edwin CardonaM
  • 36Jose Rafael EscorciaM
  • 29Andrés SarmientoF
Substitutes
  • 22Elías CabreraM
  • 19Juan Manuel RengifoF
  • 9Alfredo MorelosF
  • 32Emanuel BenitezF
  • 27Yeicar PerlazaD
  • 25Luis MarquinezG
  • 4César HaydarD
  • 40Jhoan QuesadaD
  • 28Simon RojasM

Form going into Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional

Bucaramanga

Primera A

  • W2-1Deportivo Pasto31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Santa Fe27 October 2026

Atletico Nacional

Primera A

  • W2-0Santa Fe30 October 2026
  • W2-1Independiente Medellin25 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Bucaramanga199823117+1435
1Atletico Nacional1912433818+2040

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional

  • 21 April 2026Atletico Nacional 2–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 14 September 2025Atletico Nacional 0–3 BucaramangaPrimera A
  • 29 March 2025Bucaramanga 2–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 7 February 2025Bucaramanga 0–0 Atletico NacionalSuperliga
  • 30 January 2025Atletico Nacional 1–1 BucaramangaSuperliga
  • 24 September 2024Bucaramanga 1–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A

Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional

Bucaramanga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Pons155
  • E. Batalla126

Atletico Nacional

GoalsAssists

  • A. Morelos166
  • A. Sarmiento117
  • E. Cardona104

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bucaramanga and Atletico Nacional drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Nacional at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: E. Cardona (penalty) 7' for Atletico Nacional, L. Pons (penalty) 75' for Bucaramanga. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Nacional a 76.0% chance to finish top of the Clausura: 91.7% after a win, 74.9% after a draw, 62.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 74.9%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bucaramanga v Atletico Nacional has moved

First published on 20 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Bucaramanga's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Bucaramanga win35%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Atletico Nacional win36%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.