2 November 2026, 21:05 UTC

Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Cincuentenario
Referee: Carlos Alberto Diaz Vargas, Colombia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Águilas Doradas 1-0 Fortaleza FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Águilas Doradas, 27% draw, 22% Fortaleza FC — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Águilas Doradas at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Águilas Doradas97%Draw3%Fortaleza FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
S. Vivas
22'
F. Pulicastro
🔁D. Lozanoout: E. Arizalas
38'
46'
🔁J. Medina Obandoout: D. Ramirez
46'
🔁A. Larransout: J. Garcia
🔁J. Ontanedaout: J. E. Avalo Trejos
70'
🔁M. Ramirezout: A. Carreno
70'
J. Mena
73'
76'
🔁S. Navarroout: A. Batioja
⚽A. Ricaurteassist: I. Rojas
78'
85'
🔁S. Vivasout: T. Wilke
85'
🔁F. Pulicastroout: J. Velasquez
E. Arizalas
85'
🔁J. Garciaout: J. Roa
88'
🔁A. Ricaurteout: S. Rodriguez
88'
90+4'
D. Ramirez

Match stats — Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC

57%Possession43%
11Shots7
3On target0
3Corners1
0.65xG0.74

Goals against chances

Águilas Doradas1 from 0.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
Fortaleza FC0 from 0.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Águilas Doradas 4-2-3-1
  • 1Jorge SotoG
  • 26Dylan LozanoD
  • 4Andrés MosqueraD
  • 2John GarcíaD
  • 3John OntanedaD
  • 19Frank LozanoM
  • 6Iván RojasM
  • 16Matías RamírezM
  • 8Andrés RicaurteM
  • 32Javier MenaM
  • 9Anthony VásquezF
Substitutes
  • 7Eduar ArízalasF
  • 24Juan ÁvaloM
  • 18Andrés CarreñoF
  • 28Sebastián RodríguezD
  • 25Juan Camilo RoaM
  • 12Juan HurtadoG
  • 30Nicolás LaraD
  • 20Alberto HigginsD
  • 29Tomás BlandónF
Fortaleza FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Williams BarlasinaG
  • 16Joan CajaresD
  • 6Yesid DíazD
  • 5Jeferson MedinaD
  • 15Santiago CueroD
  • 14Leonardo PicoM
  • 28Santiago VivasM
  • 32Mariano VázquezM
  • 8Sebastián NavarroM
  • 33Armando LarransM
  • 19Franco PulicastroF
Substitutes
  • 3David RamírezD
  • 25Juan GarcíaM
  • 11Andy Duvan BatiojaF
  • 10Jhon VelásquezM
  • 29Teun WilkeF
  • 12Cristian SantanderG
  • 4Edwin CabezasD
  • 13Brandon MejíaM
  • 24Jhoiner SalasF

Form going into Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC

Águilas Doradas

Primera A

  • W2-0away to Cucuta27 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Junior24 October 2026

Fortaleza FC

Primera A

  • L1-2away to America de Cali29 October 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo Cali25 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Águilas Doradas196762222025
20Fortaleza FC191991729-1212

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Águilas Doradas vs Fortaleza FC

  • 19 April 2026Fortaleza FC 2–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 4 August 2025Águilas Doradas 2–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 18 February 2025Fortaleza FC 2–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 15 November 2024Fortaleza FC 0–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 28 April 2024Águilas Doradas 1–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 9 July 2016Fortaleza FC 2–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A

Leading scorers: Águilas Doradas and Fortaleza FC

Águilas Doradas

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110

Fortaleza FC

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Águilas Doradas beat Fortaleza FC 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Águilas Doradas at 51%. The goal: A. Ricaurte 78' for Águilas Doradas. On expected goals it finished 0.65–0.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Águilas Doradas a 50.6% chance to finish in the top eight: 64.7% after a win, 37.9% after a draw, 22.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.7%, 14.1 points higher than before the match.

For Fortaleza FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 84.6% going in: 56.6% after a win, 86.6% after a draw, 94.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.4%, 9.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza FC has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Águilas Doradas's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Águilas Doradas win51%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Fortaleza FC win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.