4 November 2026, 23:30 UTC

Cucuta vs Santa Fe Primera A prediction & result

Estadio General Santander
Referee: Fernando Bautista, Colombia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Cucuta 1-0 Santa Fe.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Cucuta, 29% draw, 40% Santa Fe — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Santa Fe at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cucuta96%Draw4%Santa Fe0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
M. Puerta
43'
🔁M. Puertaout: L. Palacios
🔁G. Torresout: J. Peralta
56'
🔁T. Sanchezout: Y. Abonia
56'
J. Peralta
61'
⚽L. Berdugoassist: J. Peralta
62'
🔁D. Calcaterraout: V. Mejia
68'
70'
D. Torres
73'
🔁D. Torresout: M. Lovera
73'
🔁H. Palaciosout: C. Mafla
76'
🔁J. Obrianout: O. Fernandez
🔁D. Perezout: J. Ceballos
82'
🔁M. B. Carabali Lopezout: J. Agudelo
82'

Match stats — Cucuta vs Santa Fe

38%Possession62%
9Shots15
3On target6
2Corners6
1.16xG0.73

Goals against chances

Cucuta1 from 1.16 xGabout what the chances were worth
Santa Fe0 from 0.73 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cucuta 4-3-3
  • 12Federico AbadíaG
  • 22Tobías SánchezD
  • 2Hernán LópesD
  • 30Brayan MontañoD
  • 27Mauricio DuarteD
  • 10Leider BerdugoM
  • 3Diego CalcaterraM
  • 77Carlos RenteríaM
  • 20Dayan PérezF
  • 11Gustavo TorresF
  • 21Marlon CarabaliF
Substitutes
  • 26Yair Joao Abonia VasquezD
  • 9Jaime PeraltaF
  • 5Victor MejiaM
  • 8Juan CeballosM
  • 32Jhonatan AgudeloF
  • 1Juan David RamírezG
  • 17Leison OchoaD
  • 7Jader ManyomaM
  • 18Cristian CórdobaF
Santa Fe 4-4-2
  • 12Weimar AsprillaG
  • 13Helibelton PalaciosD
  • 18Emanuel OliveraD
  • 3Victor MorenoD
  • 4Mateo PuertaD
  • 77Jader ObrianM
  • 16Daniel TorresM
  • 7Jhojan TorresM
  • 25Emerson RodríguezM
  • 10Alexis ZapataF
  • 11Hugo RodallegaF
Substitutes
  • 14Luis Angel PalaciosF
  • 32Christian MaflaD
  • 17Maximiliano LoveraF
  • 8Omar FernándezF
  • 31Juan EspitiaG
  • 15Ivan ScarpetaD
  • 43Jean CaicedoD
  • 21Ewil Murillo RenteriaM
  • 39Cristhian PortocarreroM

Form going into Cucuta vs Santa Fe

Cucuta

Primera A

  • L0-2Águilas Doradas27 October 2026
  • L1-3away to America de Cali24 October 2026

Santa Fe

Primera A

  • L0-2away to Atletico Nacional30 October 2026
  • W2-1Bucaramanga27 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cucuta198382126-527
5Santa Fe1910453018+1234

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cucuta vs Santa Fe

  • 19 April 2026Santa Fe 5–0 CucutaPrimera A
  • 2 October 2020Cucuta 2–3 Santa FePrimera A
  • 20 July 2019Cucuta 1–0 Santa FePrimera A
  • 30 January 2019Santa Fe 1–2 CucutaPrimera A

Leading scorers: Cucuta and Santa Fe

Cucuta

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • H. Rodallega173
  • F. Fagúndez105
  • N. Bustos105

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cucuta beat Santa Fe 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Santa Fe at 40% and given a win for Cucuta 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: L. Berdugo 62' for Cucuta. On expected goals it finished 1.16–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cucuta a 9.8% chance to finish in the top eight: 22.7% after a win, 6.3% after a draw, 1.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.7%, 12.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.