3 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra, Cutervo
Referee: Edwin Ordonez
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Comerciantes Unidos 2-2 ADT.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Comerciantes Unidos, 27% draw, 23% ADT — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Comerciantes Unidos at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
•Said Peralta
8'
⚽Juan lucumi (pen)
45+1'
Orlando Nunez
🔁Yimy Gameroout: Thiago Alessandro Salinas Melgar
45'
48'
Juan Valencia
⚽Matías Eric Sen (pen)
51'
Alexis Cossio
56'
61'
🔁Said Peraltaout: Aylton Mazzo
63'
⚽Aldair Rodríguezassist: Juan lucumi
🔁Jhon Sánchezout: Wilter Ayovi
65'
🔁Agustín Rodríguezout: Jean Olivares
71'
89'
🔁Alejandro Ramosout: Jhair Soto
🔁Flavio Alcedoout: Maximiliano Pérez
89'
89'
🔁Joao Rojasout: Victor Cedron
90+2'
🔁Aldair Rodríguezout: José Rugel
⚽Joaquín Pereira (OG)
90+6'

Match stats — Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT

57%Possession43%
11Shots14
2On target4
4Corners5
1.58xG2.11

Goals against chances

Comerciantes Unidos2 from 1.58 xGabout what the chances were worth
ADT2 from 2.11 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1
  • 17Matías CordovaG
  • 20J. ParodiD
  • 40F. AlcedoD
  • 6J. RodriguezD
  • 15A. CossioD
  • 18A. RodríguezM
  • 54Y. GameroM
  • 11J. HerreraM
  • 25Rodrigo Gary Vilca BetettaM
  • 32J. SánchezM
  • 9M. SenF
Substitutes
  • 8W. AyovíF
  • 10M. CarpioM
  • 99José Pablo Alejandro Charún ValdezG
  • 30P. GuzmánD
  • 19D. LinoD
  • 50J. OlivaresF
  • 28O. PintoM
  • 13M. PérezF
  • 14Thiago SalinasM
Coach: C. Biaggio
ADT 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. ValenciaG
  • 98A. RamosD
  • 99J. PereyraD
  • 44H. BenincasaD
  • 59O. NúñezD
  • 15Josué AlvinoM
  • 16L. PérezM
  • 77Juan David Lucumí CueroM
  • 7J. RojasM
  • 22A. RodríguezM
  • 24S. PeraltaF
Substitutes
  • 33C. SolísG
  • 2Jair ReyesM
  • 31J. NavarroD
  • 18Aylton MazzoF
  • 27A. HidalgoM
  • 26Jhojan GarcilazoF
  • 10V. CedrónM
  • 28J. SotoD
  • 3L. RugelD
Coach: V. Rivera

Form going into Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT

Comerciantes Unidos

Primera División

  • D1-1away to FBC Melgar30 October 2026
  • W3-1Cienciano25 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Sporting Cristal18 October 2026

ADT

Primera División

  • W2-0UCV Moquegua28 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Atletico Grau23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Comerciantes Unidos33813124447-337
15ADT33711153648-1231

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT

  • 17 May 2026ADT 2–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
  • 23 November 2025Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 ADTPrimera División
  • 11 July 2025ADT 1–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División
  • 28 October 2024Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 ADTPrimera División
  • 19 May 2024ADT 2–0 Comerciantes UnidosPrimera División

Leading scorers: Comerciantes Unidos and ADT

Comerciantes Unidos

GoalsAssists

  • M. Sen113

ADT

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Comerciantes Unidos and ADT drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Comerciantes Unidos at 50% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Juan lucumi (penalty) 8' for ADT, Matías Eric Sen (penalty) 51' for Comerciantes Unidos, Aldair Rodríguez 63' for ADT, Joaquín Pereira (own goal) 90+6' for Comerciantes Unidos. On expected goals it finished 1.58–2.11.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ADT a 4.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 0.0% after a win, 1.0% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 1.0%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.