3 November 2026, 23:20 UTC

Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto
Referee: Diego Ulloa Angulo, Colombia
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Deportivo Pasto 2-0 Jaguares.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Deportivo Pasto, 27% draw, 25% Jaguares — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Pasto at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Pasto97%Draw3%Jaguares0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

P. Preciado
6'
🔁P. Preciadoout: J. Obregon
46'
46'
🔁W. De La Rosaout: J. Mejia
H. Mancilla
55'
59'
J. Yanez
62'
🔁J. Yanezout: R. R. Colpa Bolano
🔁H. Mancillaout: J. Mendez
62'
🔁M. Gilout: M. Pisano
63'
J. Mendez
67'
E. C. Serje Orozco
69'
⚽E. C. Serje Orozco
71'
74'
🔁Jopitoout: J. Beltran
74'
🔁F. A. Gil Mosqueraout: D. Zuluaga
74'
🔁D. Lopezout: D. Rodriguez Urango
M. Garavito
81'
🔁J. Micolta Piedahitaout: K. Santacruz
86'
K. Santacruz
90+3'
🔁F. Leysout: M. S. Jimenez
90+4'
⚽J. Mendezassist: K. Santacruz
90+5'

Match stats — Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares

49%Possession51%
19Shots8
6On target4
9Corners0
1.44xG0.2

Goals against chances

Deportivo Pasto2 from 1.44 xGmore than the chances were worth
Jaguares0 from 0.20 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2
  • 12Geovanni BangueraG
  • 33Mateo GaravitoD
  • 2Fainer TorijanoD
  • 5Nicolas Gil UribeD
  • 3Joyce OssaD
  • 18Joider MicoltaM
  • 8Enrique SerjeM
  • 25Franco LeysM
  • 15Harrinson MancillaM
  • 16Mayer GilF
  • 19Patrick PreciadoF
Substitutes
  • 9Jorge ObregónF
  • 17John MéndezF
  • 32Matías PisanoM
  • 24Kevin SantacruzM
  • 6Santiago JiménezD
  • 36Julián QuiñonesD
  • 27Hervin GoyesF
  • 38Michael MosqueraD
  • 13Luis MarquínezG
Jaguares 4-2-3-1
  • 1Diego MartínezG
  • 18Luis JiménezD
  • 6Jonathan LoveraD
  • 3Jerson MalagónD
  • 23Juan PérezD
  • 32Jose YanezM
  • 21Rafael BustamanteM
  • 20Faber Andrés GilM
  • 10Cristian AlvarezM
  • 7Wilfrido De la RosaM
  • 17Darwin LopezF
Substitutes
  • 9Johar MejíaF
  • 5Royscer ColpaM
  • 28Diego ZuluagaM
  • 8Duvan RodríguezF
  • 16Johan BeltránF
  • 12Franklin MosqueraG
  • 4Juan FrancoD
  • 29Carlos HenaoD

Form going into Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares

Deportivo Pasto

Primera A

  • L1-2away to Bucaramanga31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Deportes Tolima26 October 2026

Jaguares

Primera A

  • L0-1away to Deportivo Pereira30 October 2026
  • W1-0Llaneros26 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Deportivo Pasto1943121330-1715
19Jaguares1934121737-2013

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares

  • 17 April 2026Jaguares 2–3 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 3 August 2024Jaguares 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 5 February 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–1 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 20 October 2023Jaguares 1–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 9 September 2023Deportivo Pasto 1–0 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 8 May 2023Deportivo Pasto 4–0 JaguaresPrimera A

Leading scorers: Deportivo Pasto and Jaguares

Deportivo Pasto

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Jaguares

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rentería123

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Pasto beat Jaguares 2–0. The model had made a win for Deportivo Pasto its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. C. Serje Orozco 71' for Deportivo Pasto, J. Mendez 90+5' for Deportivo Pasto. On expected goals it finished 1.44–0.20.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Pasto a 74.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 58.1% after a win, 88.0% after a draw, 96.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.1%, 15.9 points lower than before the match.

For Jaguares the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 69.8% going in: 33.8% after a win, 69.3% after a draw, 87.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.0%, 17.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Deportivo Pasto v Jaguares has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Deportivo Pasto's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Deportivo Pasto win48%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Jaguares win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.