Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Pereira 1-3 Deportes Tolima.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Deportivo Pereira, 33% draw, 37% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 3.33, 3.03 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Deportes Tolima at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Yimy GómezG
- 20Jordy MonroyD
- 2Sebastián UrreaD
- 15Santiago AguilarD
- 25Fabio DelgadoD
- 7Anderson PlataM
- 5Jorge BermúdezM
- 21Walmer PachecoM
- 24Miguel PalaciosM
- 18Marco PérezF
- 11Jhon LargachaF
- 8Felipe MosqueraF
- 6Danilo OrtizD
- 23Tobias BovoneD
- 37Luis MorenoM
- 13Yuber QuiñonesF
- 12Juan BetancourthG
- 16Eber MorenoD
- 34Santiago ÁlzateF
- 29Manuel Alejandro Diaz HernandezF
- 13Miguel OrtegaG
- 33Jherson MosqueraD
- 71Yordan OsorioD
- 5Juan MeraD
- 20Junior HernándezD
- 14Homer MartinezM
- 80Brayan RoviraM
- 8Ever ValenciaM
- 10Luis SánchezM
- 7Jorge HurtadoM
- 24Adrián ParraF
- 16Victor ReyesM
- 9Luis SandovalF
- 3Jan ÁnguloD
- 18Kelvin FlorezF
- 15Sergio Armando Aguayo CastilloF
- 23Gali BalantaG
- 30Shean BarbosaD
- 29Neifer SanchezF
- 19Santiago JovenF
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
Primera A
- W1-0Jaguares30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Once Caldas25 October 2026
Deportes Tolima
Primera A
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Águilas Doradas18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima
- 18 April 2026Deportes Tolima 2–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 25 July 2025Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 14 February 2025Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 8 October 2024Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 23 March 2024Deportes Tolima 2–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 6 September 2023Deportes Tolima 2–3 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pereira and Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Deportes Tolima won 3–1 at Deportivo Pereira. The model had made a win for Deportes Tolima its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Luis Sánchez 13' for Deportes Tolima, Luis Sánchez 16' for Deportes Tolima, Ever Valencia 18' for Deportes Tolima, Jordy Monroy (penalty) 45+2' for Deportivo Pereira. On expected goals it finished 1.34–0.74.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Pereira a 9.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 0.0% after a win, 6.2% after a draw, 19.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.0%, 9.5 points higher than before the match.
For Deportes Tolima the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 7.2% going in: 14.7% after a win, 3.1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.7%, 7.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Deportivo Pereira v Deportes Tolima has moved
First published on 20 Oct at 27% / 32% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 30% / 33% / 37%: the biggest move is Deportes Tolima's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Deportivo Pereira win30%▲ +3
- Draw33%▲ +1
- Deportes Tolima win37%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.