31 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Llaneros vs Junior Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Bello Horizonte, Villavicencio
Referee: Andres Rojas, Colombia
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Llaneros 3-2 Junior.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Llaneros, 30% draw, 35% Junior — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Llaneros at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Llaneros96%Draw4%Junior0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Ramirezassist: F. Castaneda
17'
46'
🔁D. Caicedoout: J. Canchimbo
50'
⚽Y. Charaassist: L. Muriel
⚽J. Escobar Salcedoassist: Jhon Vasquez
55'
60'
J. Pena
🔁F. Castanedaout: J. Castilla
62'
🔁C. Cortesout: J. Contreras
62'
63'
🔁K. Perezout: F. Fydriszewski
63'
🔁L. Murielout: G. Paiva
73'
⚽G. Paiva (pen)
⚽N. Ospina (pen)
80'
🔁N. Ospinaout: B. Chury
80'
F. Meza
86'
86'
P. Ortiz
🔁J. Ramirezout: Kelvin Osorio
87'
90'
🔁J. Rivasout: G. Celis
90'
🔁F. S. Angel Bernalout: B. Castrillon

Match stats — Llaneros vs Junior

46%Possession54%
10Shots15
4On target3
2Corners1
1.16xG1.61

Goals against chances

Llaneros3 from 1.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
Junior2 from 1.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Llaneros 4-2-3-1
  • 12Juan LoaizaG
  • 4Juan PertuzD
  • 26Dennys QuinteroD
  • 21Francisco MezaD
  • 16Jhojan EscobarD
  • 6Marlon SierraM
  • 8Juan RamirezM
  • 95Jhon VásquezM
  • 10Neider OspinaM
  • 32Frank CastañedaM
  • 9Carlos CortésF
Substitutes
  • 13Juan CastillaM
  • 70Joel ContrerasF
  • 20Brandon ChuryM
  • 33Kelvin OsorioM
  • 94Jimmy MedrandaD
  • 3Víctor VidalD
  • 77Kleyman OchoaG
  • 14Kevin RincónF
  • 30Julian BeltranD
Junior 4-2-3-1
  • 1Mauro SilveiraG
  • 34Daniel SocarrasD
  • 98Jermein PeñaD
  • 23Pablo OrtízD
  • 26Yeison SuárezD
  • 80Fabián ÁngelM
  • 22Jesús RivasM
  • 25Déiber CaicedoM
  • 8Yimmi CharáM
  • 18Kevin PérezM
  • 10Luis MurielF
Substitutes
  • 21Joel CanchimboF
  • 9Guillermo PaivaF
  • 19Francisco FydriszewskiF
  • 88Bryan CastrillónF
  • 28Guillermo CelisM
  • 30Jefersson MartínezG
  • 38Andrés SchmalbachM
  • 5Daniel RiveraM
  • 14Juan David RíosM

Form going into Llaneros vs Junior

Llaneros

Primera A

  • L0-1away to Jaguares26 October 2026
  • L0-3Deportivo Cali21 October 2026

Junior

Primera A

  • D1-1away to Chico28 October 2026
  • W1-0Águilas Doradas24 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Llaneros197392124-324
14Junior195772627-122

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Llaneros vs Junior

  • 19 April 2026Junior 2–0 LlanerosPrimera A
  • 29 August 2025Junior 4–0 LlanerosPrimera A
  • 17 March 2025Llaneros 0–1 JuniorPrimera A

Leading scorers: Llaneros and Junior

Llaneros

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Junior

GoalsAssists

  • L. Muriel163

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Llaneros beat Junior 3–2. The goals: J. Ramirez 17' for Llaneros, Y. Chara 50' for Junior, J. Escobar Salcedo 55' for Llaneros, G. Paiva (penalty) 73' for Junior, N. Ospina (penalty) 80' for Llaneros. On expected goals it finished 1.16–1.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Llaneros a 3.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 0.0% after a win, 3.2% after a draw, 7.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.

For Junior the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.8% going in: under 1% after a win, 4.8% after a draw, 11.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.5%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Llaneros v Junior has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 35% / 30% / 35%: the biggest move is Llaneros's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Llaneros win35%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Junior win35%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.