31 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana
Referee: Mike Palomino
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Alianza Atletico 1-0 Juan Pablo II College.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Alianza Atletico, 24% draw, 28% Juan Pablo II College — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Alianza Atletico at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alianza Atletico96%Draw4%Juan Pablo II College0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
Juan Pablo Goicochea
🔁Jimmy Perezout: Juan Delgado
45'
⚽Hernan Lupuassist: Germán Díaz
55'
61'
🔁Nilton Ramirezout: Jack·Duran
61'
🔁Mateo Rodríguezout: Janio Pósito
🔁Guillermo Lariosout: Ariel Muñoz
62'
🔁Jorge del Castilloout: Cristian Penilla
67'
71'
🔁Juan Pablo Goicocheaout: Héctor Bazán
71'
🔁Arón Sánchezout: Jack Carhuallanqui
80'
🔁Álvaro Rojasout: Matías Kevin Almirón Llanes
90+6'
•Janio Pósito
90+10'
Christian Flores
🔁Jesus Mendietaout: Williams Aldair·Guzman Vargas
90+12'
🔁José María Ingrattiout: Jairo Molina
90+12'
90+14'
Jorge Toledo
Germán Díaz
90+14'

Match stats — Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College

47%Possession53%
20Shots13
4On target3
6Corners5
1.23xG1.14

Goals against chances

Alianza Atletico1 from 1.23 xGabout what the chances were worth
Juan Pablo II College0 from 1.14 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alianza Atletico 4-2-3-1
  • 95D. PrietoG
  • 21E. PerlecheD
  • 2R. SuarezD
  • 6J. LujánD
  • 19J. MendietaD
  • 10Germán DíazM
  • 15H. LupúM
  • 22J. del CastilloM
  • 20Jimmy PérezM
  • 11G. LariosM
  • 27J. IngrattiF
Substitutes
  • 25W. GuzmánD
  • 24A. GordilloD
  • 16S. FernándezM
  • 37J. DelgadoM
  • 29J. MolinaF
  • 23A. MuñozM
  • 17C. PenillaM
  • 31S. RivadeneyraG
  • 9V. RobaldoF
Coach: F. Urciuoli
Juan Pablo II College 4-2-3-1
  • 23M. VegaG
  • 2H. AncajimaD
  • 31J. ToledoD
  • 60P. MíguezD
  • 19P. ReynaD
  • 37Á. RojasM
  • 3A. SánchezM
  • 79J. GoicocheaM
  • 15N. RamírezM
  • 18E. RamírezM
  • 97M. RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 12I. QuispeG
  • 89J. PósitoF
  • 8C. FloresM
  • 28J. DuránM
  • 14J. CarhuallanquiM
  • 20H. BazánM
  • 16Piero Alonso Antón CastilloD
  • 33M. AlmirónD
  • 71C. VillanuevaM
Coach: J. Araujo

Form going into Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College

Alianza Atletico

Primera División

  • W3-2Deportivo Garcilaso28 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Sport Huancayo24 October 2026
  • L1-4Universitario18 October 2026

Juan Pablo II College

Primera División

  • W2-0Sport Huancayo27 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Universitario25 October 2026
  • W2-0Sport Boys17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Alianza Atletico33147124948+149
12Juan Pablo II College33118144859-1141

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College

  • 16 May 2026Juan Pablo II College 0–2 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
  • 24 January 2026Juan Pablo II College 3–0 Alianza AtleticoFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 September 2025Alianza Atletico 0–1 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
  • 12 April 2025Juan Pablo II College 1–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Alianza Atletico and Juan Pablo II College

Alianza Atletico

GoalsAssists

  • C. Penilla95

Juan Pablo II College

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Alianza Atletico beat Juan Pablo II College 1–0. The model had made a win for Alianza Atletico its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Hernan Lupu 55' for Alianza Atletico. Sent off: Christian Flores (Juan Pablo II College) 90+10'. On expected goals it finished 1.23–1.14.

How the call on Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 53% / 23% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 48% / 24% / 28%: the biggest move is Alianza Atletico's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Alianza Atletico win48%▼ −5
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. Juan Pablo II College win28%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.