AC Milan vs Inter Serie A prediction & result
Final score: AC Milan 3-1 Inter.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% AC Milan, 25% draw, 48% Inter — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Inter at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AC Milan vs Inter
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16M. MaignanG
- 34Mario GilaD
- 5K. De WinterD
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 22Diego MoreiraM
- 14L. ModrićM
- 80Y. MusahM
- 13S. BocoumM
- 12A. RabiotM
- 11C. PulišićM
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 30A. JashariM
- 49Luka MenonF
- 40L. OssolaM
- 47N. PereraD
- 42F. TerraccianoD
- 55Silvano VosM
- 96L. TorrianiG
- 20O. HutchinsonF
- 41L. P. BouyerG
- 1Josep MartínezG
- 31Y. BisseckD
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 95A. BastoniD
- 99D. SpenceM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 30Carlos AugustoM
- 17A. DioufM
- 8P. SučićM
- 9M. ThuramF
- 7P. ZielińskiM
- 40A. TahoG
- 94F. EspositoF
- 5A. StankovićM
- 48M. MosconiF
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 53M. LavelliF
- 51L. JakirovićD
- 32F. DimarcoD
Form going into AC Milan vs Inter
AC Milan
Serie A
- L2-4Bologna28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Udinese25 October 2026
- W3-2Atalanta18 October 2026
Inter
Serie A
- W2-0away to Venezia28 October 2026
- W2-1Fiorentina25 October 2026
- W3-1away to Bologna17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Inter
AC Milan and Inter have met 7 times in the records we hold, AC Milan has won 4 of them to Inter's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
AC Milan won the last one 3–1 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 |
| Inter | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Serie AAC Milan 3–1 Inter - 5 Aug 2026
Friendlies ClubsAC Milan 1–1 Inter - 8 Mar 2026
Serie AAC Milan 1–0 Inter - 23 Nov 2025
Serie AInter 0–1 AC Milan - 23 Apr 2025
Coppa ItaliaInter 0–3 AC Milan - 2 Apr 2025
Coppa ItaliaAC Milan 1–1 Inter - 2 Feb 2025
Serie AAC Milan 1–1 Inter
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Inter's attack rates 36% above AC Milan's, and Inter concede 8% fewer than AC Milan. That gives Inter the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: AC Milan and Inter
AC Milan
GoalsAssists
- A. Rabiot54
- A. Cissè50
- Diego Moreira43
Inter
GoalsAssists
- M. Thuram62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AC Milan beat Inter 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Inter at 48% and given a win for AC Milan 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Christian Pulisic 4' for AC Milan, Adrien Rabiot 10' for AC Milan, Alessandro Bastoni 22' for Inter, Diego Moreira 43' for AC Milan. On expected goals it finished 0.70–1.74.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave AC Milan a 25.0% chance to finish in the top four: 30.9% after a win, 24.3% after a draw, 22.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.9%, 5.9 points higher than before the match.
For Inter the question was the chance to win the league, 56.8% going in: 60.8% after a win, 54.5% after a draw, 49.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.8%, 7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on AC Milan v Inter has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 27% / 25% / 48%: the biggest move is Inter's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- AC Milan win27%▼ −4
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Inter win48%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.