7 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II Segunda División prediction & result

Burgos
Referee: P. Morales
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Burgos 2-1 Celta de Vigo II.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Burgos, 25% draw, 20% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Burgos at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burgos97%Draw3%Celta de Vigo II0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Alvaro·Marin Sesmaassist: Aldrine Kibet
Victor Mollejo
27'
29'
Joel Lopez
45'
🔁Frank Germain Jonathan Millerout: Hugo Cuenca
49'
Alvaro·Marin Sesma
50'
Adrià Capdevila
🔁Pablo Galdamesout: Ignasi Vilarrasa Palacios
58'
🔁Brais Martínezout: Javier Llabrés Exposito
58'
⚽Curroassist: Alberto Dadie
68'
74'
🔁Ángel Arcosout: Pablo González Meixús
74'
🔁Jan Oliverasout: Vladimir Henrique Silva
🔁Alberto Dadieout: José Gragera
74'
🔁Victor Mollejoout: Kevin Appin
75'
🔁Saul Del Cerro Garciaout: Sergio González
77'
82'
🔁Adrià Capdevilaout: Stefan Bajcetic
83'
🔁Seyni Mbaye Ndiayeout: Noah Rodríguez Guallar
⚽Álex Forésassist: Ignasi Vilarrasa Palacios
86'
89'
Enrique Ribes Recaj

Match stats — Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II

59%Possession41%
19Shots7
6On target1
10Corners1
2.84xG0.49

Goals against chances

Burgos2 from 2.84 xGless than the chances were worth
Celta de Vigo II1 from 0.49 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Burgos 4-4-2
  • 13Ander CanteroG
  • 2ÁlexD
  • 15Oier LuengoD
  • 18Saúl del CerroD
  • 22Brais MartínezD
  • 23Alberto DadieM
  • 12Unai VencedorM
  • 4P. GaldamesM
  • 11Víctor MollejoM
  • 9Álex ForésF
  • 16Curro SánchezF
Substitutes
  • 10K. AppinM
  • 17Mario CanteroM
  • 5Marcelo ExpósitoM
  • 21Fermin GarciaF
  • 3Ignasi VilarrasaD
  • 6Sergio GonzálezD
  • 20José GrageraM
  • 1Bruno IribarneG
  • 19Javi LlabrésF
Coach: Sergio Francisco
Celta de Vigo II 3-4-2-1
  • 1Coke CarrilloG
  • 3K. RibesD
  • 4S. M. NdiayeD
  • 18Joel LópezD
  • 23G. MillerM
  • 16Adrià CapdevilaM
  • 29M. SobralM
  • 14Jan OliverasM
  • 15A. KibetM
  • 11Ángel ArcosM
  • 9A. MarinF
Substitutes
  • 33David Sueiro MuiñosM
  • 27Noah Rodríguez GuallarM
  • 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
  • 6P. MeixusD
  • 25M. GonzalezG
  • 19A. Davila OutereloF
  • 17H. CuencaM
  • 31Raúl Chirveches SánchezD
  • 13Caio BaroneG
Coach: Fredi

Form going into Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II

Burgos

Segunda División

  • D1-1Castellón1 November 2026
  • W3-2away to FC Andorra26 October 2026
  • W1-0Sabadell18 October 2026

Celta de Vigo II

Segunda División

  • D2-2Cordoba31 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Girona24 October 2026
  • D1-1Tenerife19 October 2026
  • W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Celta de Vigo II scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Celta de Vigo II conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Celta de Vigo II.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Burgos147342017+324
17Celta de Vigo II133461925-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II

  • 9 May 2021Burgos 1–0 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
  • 18 April 2021Celta de Vigo II 1–1 BurgosPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Leading scorers: Burgos and Celta de Vigo II

Burgos

GoalsAssists

  • Álex Forés41

Celta de Vigo II

GoalsAssists

  • A. Marin81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Burgos beat Celta de Vigo II 2–1. The model had made a win for Burgos its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Alvaro·Marin Sesma 12' for Celta de Vigo II, Curro 68' for Burgos, Álex Forés 86' for Burgos. On expected goals it finished 2.84–0.49.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burgos a 7.9% chance to finish in the top two: 9.1% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 4.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.1%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For Celta de Vigo II the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 31.0% going in: 24.1% after a win, 30.7% after a draw, 33.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.0%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Burgos v Celta de Vigo II has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is Burgos's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Burgos win55%▲ +7
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Celta de Vigo II win20%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.