7 November 2026, 15:15 UTC

Cadiz vs Oviedo Segunda División prediction & result

JP Financial Estadio, Cadiz
Referee: M. H. De Aza
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Cadiz 1-2 Oviedo.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Cadiz, 28% draw, 38% Oviedo — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oviedo at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cadiz0%Draw4%Oviedo96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Estanis Pedrolaassist: Enzo Pérez Miranda
29'
🔁Dani Calvoout: David Costas
38'
⚽Ilyas Chaira
44'
Youness Lachhab Didi
🔁Borja Vazquezout: Cristian Gutiérrez
45'
🔁Bojan Kovacevicout: Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi
45'
🔁Aimen Moueffekout: Javier Ontiveros
45'
54'
Ilyas Chaira
61'
🔁Estanis Pedrolaout: Jacobo González
61'
🔁Mikel Goti Lopezout: Alberto Reina
61'
🔁Alexandru Mihai Isfanout: Pablo Saenz
🔁Javier Castroout: Noah Obioma Ukwuije
63'
Cristian Gutiérrez
66'
67'
🔁Ilyas Chairaout: Daniel Villahermosa
71'
David Jimenez
🔁Giorgi Gocholeishviliout: Beñat de Jesús Domingo
72'
Beñat de Jesús Domingo
76'
78'
Enzo Pérez Miranda
⚽Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundiassist: Antonio Cordero
83'
Dilan Zárate
84'
Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi
87'
90+3'
David Costas

Match stats — Cadiz vs Oviedo

47%Possession53%
15Shots11
4On target4
7Corners4
2.15xG0.66

Goals against chances

Cadiz1 from 2.15 xGless than the chances were worth
Oviedo2 from 0.66 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cadiz 4-2-3-1
  • 13Jokin EzkietaG
  • 12G. GocholeishviliD
  • 4Javi CastroD
  • 14B. KovačevićD
  • 3Sergio ArribasD
  • 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
  • 17A. MoueffekM
  • 20Borja VazquezM
  • 24Ibon SánchezM
  • 16Antonio CorderoM
  • 9Álvaro GarcíaF
Substitutes
  • 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
  • 5M. DouéM
  • 6Manu FernándezD
  • 1David GilG
  • 22Cristian GutiérrezD
  • 19Urko IzetaF
  • 10Javi OntiverosM
  • 23Damián RodríguezM
  • 15K. ToibibouD
Coach: Borja Jiménez
Oviedo 4-1-4-1
  • 13Aarón EscandellG
  • 21David JiménezD
  • 12Dani CalvoD
  • 23Carlos DomínguezD
  • 15S. RodriguezD
  • 5Y. DidiM
  • 7I. ChairaM
  • 8Mikel GotiM
  • 32Enzo PerezM
  • 17EstanisM
  • 24A. IșfanF
Substitutes
  • 1Miguel NarváezG
  • 6Dani VillahermosaM
  • 22Nacho VidalD
  • 20Pablo SáenzF
  • 10Alberto ReinaM
  • 25José Luis MoralesF
  • 28D. MenendezM
  • 11Jacobo GonzálezF
  • 18V. MingoF
Coach: Julián Calero

Form going into Cadiz vs Oviedo

Cadiz

Segunda División

  • L1-2away to Mallorca2 November 2026
  • W3-1AD Ceuta FC25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Granada CF18 October 2026
  • L0-1Sporting Gijon11 October 2026

Oviedo

Segunda División

  • L2-3Las Palmas2 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Almeria24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cadiz conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Cadiz failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Cadiz132471618-210
9Oviedo146352018+221

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cadiz vs Oviedo

  • 1 June 2025Oviedo 2–1 CadizSegunda División
  • 26 October 2024Cadiz 2–0 OviedoSegunda División
  • 4 July 2020Cadiz 2–0 OviedoSegunda División
  • 15 December 2019Oviedo 0–2 CadizSegunda División
  • 3 February 2019Oviedo 2–1 CadizSegunda División
  • 1 September 2018Cadiz 1–1 OviedoSegunda División

Leading scorers: Cadiz and Oviedo

Cadiz

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Cordero52

Oviedo

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Domínguez50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Oviedo won 2–1 at Cadiz. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Oviedo at 38%. The goals: Estanis Pedrola 22' for Oviedo, Ilyas Chaira 38' for Oviedo, Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi 83' for Cadiz. On expected goals it finished 2.15–0.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cadiz a 50.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 42.7% after a win, 51.4% after a draw, 56.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.3%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cadiz v Oviedo has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 31% / 29% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is Cadiz's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Cadiz win34%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Oviedo win38%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.