Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Cordoba 3-0 AD Ceuta FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Cordoba, 23% draw, 20% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cordoba at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Iker ÁlvarezG
- 30Daniel BudescaD
- 5Juan GutiérrezD
- 16Rubén AlvesD
- 3Dani TasendeD
- 28Eder GarcíaM
- 6D. CaceresM
- 14Adnane GhailanM
- 23Cristian CarracedoF
- 9PercanF
- 11Diego BriF
- 20Nélson MonteD
- 24S. El JebariF
- 21Carlos AlbarránD
- 27Egoitz MuñozD
- 18Enol RodríguezF
- 19Ibai SanzF
- 13Guilherme FernandesG
- 15V. SanchezF
- 7T. ZidaneM
- 1Pedro LópezG
- 23A. TuhamiD
- 6Carlos HernándezD
- 4Albert CaparrósD
- 3José MatosD
- 20Álex MeléndezM
- 14Y. BodigerM
- 10Marino IllescasM
- 8KukiF
- 9Jordi EscobarF
- 11Cedric TeguiaF
- 28Abraham Bueno EspinosaM
- 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezM
- 15JoaquínM
- 13Guille VallejoG
- 19E. SevikyanM
- 29O. SadikF
- 16RedruD
- 18Alex PetxarromanD
- 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
Form going into Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC
Cordoba
Segunda División
- D2-2away to Celta de Vigo II31 October 2026
- W2-0Eibar24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Leganes16 October 2026
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División
- L0-2Sporting Gijon1 November 2026
- L1-3away to Cadiz25 October 2026
- L1-2Oviedo18 October 2026
- L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026
What these results say
- AD Ceuta FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cordoba | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 20 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC
- 25 February 2026AD Ceuta FC 3–2 CordobaSegunda División
- 2 November 2025Cordoba 2–0 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
- 18 February 2024AD Ceuta FC 1–1 CordobaPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 12 November 2023Cordoba 3–3 AD Ceuta FCPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 12 March 2023Cordoba 1–1 AD Ceuta FCPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 6 November 2022AD Ceuta FC 1–2 CordobaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Leading scorers: Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC
Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- Percan63
- Eder García42
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cordoba beat AD Ceuta FC 3–0. The model had made a win for Cordoba its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Anuar Mohamed Tuhami (own goal) 23' for Cordoba, Diego Percan 25' for Cordoba, Diego Percan 48' for Cordoba. On expected goals it finished 1.34–1.87.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cordoba a 8.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 6.7% after a win, 10.3% after a draw, 13.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.7%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.
For AD Ceuta FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 89.4% going in: 84.9% after a win, 89.8% after a draw, 91.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.5%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 52% / 24% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 57% / 23% / 20%: the biggest move is Cordoba's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Cordoba win57%▲ +5
- Draw23%▼ −1
- AD Ceuta FC win20%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.