17 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Almeria vs Eldense Segunda División prediction & result

UD Almeria Stadium, Almeria
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Almeria 3-0 Eldense.

Before kick-off the model made it 84% Almeria, 10% draw, 6% Eldense — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Almeria at 84% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Almeria99%Draw1%Eldense0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
David Ruiz Montero
⚽F. Boniniassist: N. Melamed
15'
25'
Jesús Clemente
Stefan Džodić
34'
44'
Guillermo Macho
•Stefan Džodić
45+3'
⚽S. Dzodicassist: M. de la Fuente
45'
⚽N. Melamed
45'
61'
🔁M. Bustilloout: J. Rastrojo
🔁A. Embarbaout: B. Cipenga
66'
🔁N. Melamedout: Q. Junyent
66'
76'
🔁M. Carmonaout: J. Martin
76'
🔁P. Cabanesout: Rodri
🔁D. Chirinoout: M. Luna
81'
🔁S. Arribasout: Leo Baptistao
81'
83'
🔁G. Machoout: B. Calvo
83'
🔁Fidelout: C. Guirao
🔁S. Dzodicout: M. Vesga
88'
⚽Léo Baptistão (pen)
90+7'

Match stats — Almeria vs Eldense

57%Possession43%
15Shots11
5On target3
7Corners8

Line-ups

Almeria 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. FernandezG
  • 22D. ChirinoD
  • 5J. PulidoD
  • 18F. BoniniD
  • 3A. MunozD
  • 29S. DzodicM
  • 8Gui GuedesM
  • 23A. EmbarbaM
  • 11S. ArribasM
  • 10N. MelamedM
  • 24M. de la FuenteF
Substitutes
  • 13F. MartinezG
  • 30J. LopezG
  • 19Rodrigo ElyD
  • 21ChumiD
  • 20A. SolaM
  • 2M. LunaD
  • 4N. MonteD
  • 17B. CipengaM
  • 33Q. JunyentM
Coach: Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco
Eldense 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. VilaG
  • 17J. ClementeD
  • 4F. SmandD
  • 34J. OlaizolaD
  • 21D. RuizD
  • 14J. SmithM
  • 18G. MachoM
  • 10FidelM
  • 8M. BustilloM
  • 16P. CabanesM
  • 9M. CarmonaF
Substitutes
  • 36D. Bernabeu
  • 13JuanpaG
  • 23J. MartinD
  • 26I. CarbonellD
  • 22J. YandaD
  • 31A. MarinD
  • 6B. CalvoM
  • 15C. GuiraoM
  • 30D. RodriguezM
Coach: Claudio Barragan

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Almeria530284+49
16Eldense512236-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Almeria vs Eldense

  • 17 August 2026Almeria 3–0 EldenseSegunda División
  • 3 December 2025Eldense 2–1 AlmeriaCopa del Rey
  • 4 May 2025Almeria 5–0 EldenseSegunda División
  • 8 September 2024Eldense 1–0 AlmeriaSegunda División

Leading scorers: Almeria and Eldense

Almeria

  • B. Cipenga1 goals3 assists
  • Léo Baptistão1 goals1 assists

Eldense

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.