16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Girona vs Leganes Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Girona 1-1 Leganes.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Girona, 19% draw, 10% Leganes — fair odds of 1.41, 5.26 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Girona at 71% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Girona0%Draw6%Leganes94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Min-su Kim
40'
43'
Marvel
48'
⚽N. Garcia
🔁I. Martinout: A. Ruiz
58'
61'
🔁I. Gharbiout: R. Pena
61'
🔁Y. Kechtaout: U. del Cura
61'
🔁P. Sokoout: A. Millan
Fran Beltrán
65'
🔁B. Gilout: Y. Asprilla
68'
🔁M. Kimout: C. Stuani
68'
🔁D. Camaraout: G. Jastin
68'
68'
🔁A. Tejeroout: D. Rodriguez
🔁out: I. Gonzalez
81'
85'
🔁M. Atienzaout: R. Pulido
87'
Ignasi Miquel
90+5'
Rubén Pulido
⚽A. Ruiz
90'

Match stats — Girona vs Leganes

69%Possession31%
27Shots5
7On target3
9Corners0

Line-ups

Girona 4-1-4-1
  • 13P. GazzanigaG
  • 4A. MartinezD
  • 16A. FrancesD
  • 38J. ArangoD
  • 11A. MorenoD
  • 8F. BeltranM
  • 17B. GilM
  • 23I. MartinM
  • 14I. MoranteM
  • 20M. KimM
  • 12D. CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 25V. KrapyvtsovG
  • 28G. JordanaD
  • 39G. BadiaD
  • 35A. YaakobishviliD
  • 15V. TsygankovF
  • 29L. KouroumaM
  • 22Y. AsprillaM
  • 24I. GonzalezM
  • 7C. StuaniF
Coach: Quique Alvarez
Leganes 5-4-1
  • 1R. FernandezG
  • 11N. GarciaD
  • 6G. Aguilar LopezD
  • 5I. MiquelD
  • 2MarvelD
  • 23A. TejeroD
  • 8Y. KechtaM
  • 10Z. BuurmeesterM
  • 20M. AtienzaM
  • 17I. GharbiM
  • 19P. SokoF
Substitutes
  • 13L. ZidaneG
  • 31N. LozanoG
  • 7R. PenaD
  • 4R. PulidoD
  • 29D. HamansenyaD
  • 28B. AugusteD
  • 14D. RodriguezM
  • 48U. del CuraF
  • 9A. MillanF
Coach: Ruben Albes

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Girona5212107+37
12Leganes52213308

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Girona vs Leganes

  • 16 August 2026Girona 1–1 LeganesSegunda División
  • 24 April 2025Leganes 1–1 GironaLa Liga
  • 2 November 2024Girona 4–3 LeganesLa Liga
  • 27 February 2022Leganes 1–1 GironaSegunda División
  • 6 December 2021Girona 3–0 LeganesSegunda División
  • 7 February 2021Girona 0–2 LeganesSegunda División

Leading scorers: Girona and Leganes

Girona

  • Y. Asprilla4 goals

Leganes

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.