16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Las Palmas vs Albacete Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Las Palmas 2-1 Albacete.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Las Palmas, 24% draw, 44% Albacete — fair odds of 3.13, 4.17 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Albacete at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Las Palmas4%Draw91%Albacete5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Marvinout: G. Bonfanti
13'
18'
Sergio Ortuño
⚽Jeseassist: T. Miyashiro
21'
Kirian Rodríguez
23'
30'
Victor San Bartolome
53'
🔁S. Obengout: T. Ingles
🔁S. Ruizout: E. Loiodice
60'
🔁Jeseout: R. Cruz
60'
70'
🔁C. Nevaout: D. Bernabeu
71'
🔁J. Vallejoout: R. Gonzalez
79'
🔁F. Gamezout: Lorenzo
79'
🔁A. Rubioout: M. Soberon
85'
⚽V. San Bartolome
🔁M. Fusterout: E. Romero
86'
🔁J. Betancorout: S. Ramirez
86'
⚽S. Ramirezassist: E. Romero
90'

Match stats — Las Palmas vs Albacete

66%Possession34%
12Shots12
4On target4
3Corners6
1.18xG1.53

Goals against chances

Las Palmas2 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth
Albacete1 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Las Palmas 4-2-3-1
  • 13J. CaroG
  • 2MarvinD
  • 4Alex SuarezD
  • 15J. HerzogD
  • 27V. PezzolesiD
  • 8S. RuizM
  • 20K. RodriguezM
  • 11T. MiyashiroM
  • 14M. FusterM
  • 7J. BetancorM
  • 10JeseF
Substitutes
  • 1D. HorkasG
  • 21G. BonfantiD
  • 23A. RodriguezD
  • 33V. AlegreD
  • 12E. LoiodiceM
  • 6I. GonzalezM
  • 16M. AcimovicM
  • 26A. BassingaM
  • 30I. MedinaF
Coach: Ruben de la Barrera
Albacete 3-5-2
  • 13D. MarinoG
  • 24J. VallejoD
  • 23PepeD
  • 22L. LopezD
  • 15F. GamezM
  • 17J. CorpasM
  • 18S. OrtunoM
  • 14V. San Bartolome
  • 21C. NevaM
  • 19A. RubioF
  • 20S. ObengF
Substitutes
  • 1C. MarinG
  • 2LorenzoD
  • 5J. MorenoD
  • 27D. BernabeuD
  • 28A. VelillaD
  • 38D. RodriguezM
  • 10R. GonzalezF
  • 33T. Ingles
  • 9M. SoberonF
Coach: Alberto Gonzalez

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Las Palmas531176+110
21Albacete501438-51

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Albacete

  • 16 August 2026Las Palmas 2–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 16 March 2026Albacete 2–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
  • 21 November 2025Las Palmas 2–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 3 April 2023Albacete 1–2 Las PalmasSegunda División
  • 11 December 2022Las Palmas 1–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 24 May 2021Las Palmas 3–2 AlbaceteSegunda División

Leading scorers: Las Palmas and Albacete

Las Palmas

  • T. Miyashiro2 goals2 assists

Albacete

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.