Burnley vs West Ham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Burnley 2-2 West Ham.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Burnley, 27% draw, 42% West Ham — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 42% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burnley vs West Ham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Max WeissG
- 22Oliver SonneD
- 2Kyle WalkerD
- 3Max AlleyneD
- 6Bashir HumphreysD
- 28Hannibal MejbriM
- 8Ugo RaghouberM
- 10Marcus EdwardsM
- 21Aaron RamseyM
- 7Jacob Bruun LarsenM
- 19Zian FlemmingF
- 29Josh LaurentM
- 11Zeki AmdouniF
- 13Ben AmosG
- 4Joe WorrallD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 20Shurandy SamboD
- 31Mike TrésorF
- 17Andreas HountondjiF
- 27Armando BrojaF
- 1Mads HermansenG
- 2Kyle Walker-PetersD
- 15Konstantinos MavropanosD
- 3Max KilmanD
- 30Oliver ScarlesD
- 20Jarrod BowenM
- 61Lewis OrfordM
- 17Mohamadou KantéM
- 10Manor SolomonM
- 19Pablo FelipeF
- 11Valentín CastellanosF
- 8James Ward-ProwseM
- 23Alphonse AréolaG
- 58Airidas GolambeckisD
- 12El Hadji Malick DioufD
- 63Ezra MayersD
- 34Joël VeltmanD
- 40George EarthyM
- 66Joshua AjalaF
- 48Josh LandersF
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs West Ham
- 16 August 2026Burnley 2–2 West HamChampionship
- 7 February 2026Burnley 0–2 West HamPremier League
- 8 November 2025West Ham 3–2 BurnleyPremier League
- 10 March 2024West Ham 2–2 BurnleyPremier League
- 25 November 2023Burnley 1–2 West HamPremier League
- 17 April 2022West Ham 1–1 BurnleyPremier League
Leading scorers: Burnley and West Ham
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
West Ham
- J. Bowen4 goals3 assists
- J. Piroe3 goals
- K. Mavropanos3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.