17 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Cardiff vs Wrexham Championship prediction & result

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Cardiff 1-1 Wrexham.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Cardiff, 16% draw, 24% Wrexham — fair odds of 1.67, 6.25 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cardiff at 60% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cardiff1%Draw9%Wrexham90%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Kieffer Mooreassist: Daniel Imray
33'
Kieffer Moore
54'
Dominic Hyam
🔁Ollie Tannerout: Rubin Colwill
62'
🔁Chris Willockout: Joel Colwill
63'
67'
🔁Oliver Rathboneout: Ben Whiteman
72'
🔁Nathan Broadheadout: Davis Keillor-Dunn
72'
🔁Kieffer Mooreout: Sam Smith
75'
🔁Daniel Imrayout: Ryan Longman
75'
🔁Matty Jamesout: George Dobson
🔁Cian Ashfordout: Isaak Davies
80'
🔁Calum Scanlonout: Ronan Kpakio
80'
🔁Alex Robertsonout: Callum Robinson
80'
⚽Rubin Colwill
90+8'

Match stats — Cardiff vs Wrexham

67%Possession33%
11Shots18
3On target8
9Corners9
0.9xG1.55

Goals against chances

Cardiff1 from 0.90 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wrexham1 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cardiff
  • 1Nathan TrottG
  • 38Perry NgD
  • 4Gabriel OshoD
  • 3Joel BaganD
  • 23Calum ScanlonD
  • 18Alex RobertsonM
  • 11Ollie TannerM
  • 8Jack MoylanM
  • 45Cian AshfordM
  • 16Chris WillockM
  • 9Yousef SalechF
Substitutes
  • 10Rubin ColwillM
  • 27Joel ColwillM
  • 44Ronan KpakioD
  • 47Callum RobinsonF
  • 39Isaak DaviesF
  • 30Harry TyrerG
  • 40Noah AnyadikeD
  • 33Rob TankiewiczM
  • 14David TurnbullM
Coach: Brian Barry-Murphy
Wrexham
  • 22Anthony PattersonG
  • 26Zak VynerD
  • 5Dominic HyamD
  • 2Callum DoyleD
  • 30Daniel ImrayM
  • 20Oliver RathboneM
  • 37Matty JamesM
  • 27Lewis O'BrienM
  • 14George ThomasonM
  • 19Kieffer MooreF
  • 33Nathan BroadheadF
Substitutes
  • 8Ben WhitemanM
  • 28Sam SmithF
  • 7Davis Keillor-DunnF
  • 47Ryan LongmanM
  • 15George DobsonM
  • 21Danny WardG
  • 24Dan ScarrD
  • 4Max CleworthD
  • 11Bailey CadamarteriF
Coach: Phil Parkinson

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Cardiff7043711-44
19Wrexham7142711-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Wrexham

  • 17 August 2026Cardiff 1–1 WrexhamChampionship
  • 28 October 2025Wrexham 1–2 CardiffLeague Cup
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.