15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Stoke City vs Swansea Championship prediction & result

Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Stoke City 1-2 Swansea.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Stoke City, 23% draw, 47% Swansea — fair odds of 3.33, 4.35 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Swansea at 47% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stoke City0%Draw5%Swansea95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Bocatassist: T. Rigo
10'
23'
⚽J. Opokuassist: Z. Vipotnik
L. Graham
36'
🔁B. Lawalout: M. Talovierov
46'
53'
F. Lissah
55'
🔁F. Lissahout: J. Key
65'
🔁M. K. Yeoout: Eom Ji-Sung
65'
🔁Z. Vipotnikout: A. Idah
65'
🔁E. Justout: M. Widell
66'
⚽A. Idahassist: J. Tymon
🔁S. Gallagherout: R. Bozenik
70'
🔁T. Rigoout: Bae Jun-Ho
70'
🔁S. Ingelssonout: D. Soumare
70'
84'
🔁J. Fultonout: L. Walta
86'
M. Widell
90+1'
J. Tymon

Match stats — Stoke City vs Swansea

41%Possession59%
5Shots7
2On target3
4Corners5
0.63xG0.61

Goals against chances

Stoke City1 from 0.63 xGabout what the chances were worth
Swansea2 from 0.61 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Stoke City 4-2-3-1
  • 1Viktor JohanssonG
  • 16Ben WilmotD
  • 18Bosun LawalD
  • 5Luke GrahamD
  • 17Eric BocatD
  • 8Ethan GalbraithM
  • 6Svante IngelssonM
  • 42Million ManhoefM
  • 19Tomáš RigoM
  • 7Sorba ThomasM
  • 20Sam GallagherF
Substitutes
  • 40Maksym TalovierovD
  • 27Djibril SoumaréM
  • 10Jun-Ho BaeM
  • 9Róbert BoženíkF
  • 24Joshua GriffithsG
  • 23Ben GibsonD
  • 43Freddie AndersonD
  • 4Ben PearsonM
  • 58Tyler MartinF
Coach: Mark Robins
Swansea 4-1-4-1
  • 22Lawrence VigourouxG
  • 26Filip LissahD
  • 5Ben CabangoD
  • 23Stephen WelshD
  • 14Josh TymonD
  • 4Jay FultonM
  • 30Joseph OpokuM
  • 8Elijah JustM
  • 6Marko StamenićM
  • 49Moussa Kounfolo YeoM
  • 9Žan VipotnikF
Substitutes
  • 2Josh KeyD
  • 7Melker WidellM
  • 10Ji-sung EomF
  • 33Adam IdahF
  • 1Andrew FisherG
  • 50Carter HeywoodD
  • 20Tiago ParenteD
  • 35RonaldF
  • 21Leo WaltaM
Coach: Vitor Emanuel Soares Matos

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Stoke City73131111010
2Swansea7421115+614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Swansea

  • 15 August 2026Stoke City 1–2 SwanseaChampionship
  • 7 March 2026Swansea 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 13 December 2025Stoke City 2–1 SwanseaChampionship
  • 15 February 2025Stoke City 3–1 SwanseaChampionship
  • 5 October 2024Swansea 0–0 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 10 April 2024Swansea 3–0 Stoke CityChampionship

Leading scorers: Stoke City and Swansea

Stoke City

  • E. Galbraith3 goals
  • E. Bocat2 goals2 assists

Swansea

  • A. Idah3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.