7 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

Cagliari vs Lecce Serie A prediction & result

Unipol Domus, Cagliari
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Cagliari 1-0 Lecce.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Cagliari, 28% draw, 26% Lecce — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cagliari at 46% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cagliari97%Draw3%Lecce0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Daniel Maldiniassist: Jacopo Fazzini
29'
37'
Kialonda Gaspar
45'
🔁Oumar Ngomout: Amar Fatah
🔁Jacopo Fazziniout: Mattia Felici
61'
🔁Juan Rodriguezout: Raphael Kofler
66'
🔁Daniel Maldiniout: Alieu Fadera
66'
66'
🔁Kialonda Gasparout: Jamil Siebert
66'
🔁Ivan Ilićout: Youssef Maleh
66'
🔁Joel Almada Monteiroout: Konan N'Dri
🔁Mattia Feliciout: Roberto Gagliardini
74'
🔁Paul Mendyout: A. Sugamele
74'
82'
🔁Santiago Pierottiout: Medon Berisha
Alessandro Deiola
90+5'
90+5'
Jamil Siebert
90+7'
Wladimiro Falcone

Match stats — Cagliari vs Lecce

42%Possession58%
20Shots10
9On target3
7Corners5

Line-ups

Cagliari 4-3-2-1
  • 1E. CaprileG
  • 2Zé PedroD
  • 14A. DeiolaD
  • 15J. RodríguezD
  • 33A. ObertD
  • 8M. AdopoM
  • 4A. RomanoM
  • 6H. WinksM
  • 70D. MaldiniM
  • 10J. FazziniM
  • 31P. MendyF
Substitutes
  • 17M. FeliciF
  • 30A. AkarakiriM
  • 24G. AurelioD
  • 20R. CiervoF
  • 39A. FaderaF
  • 21Roberto GagliardiniM
  • 36N. GranduM
  • 22R. KoflerD
  • 27J. LitetaM
Coach: F. Pisacane
Lecce 4-1-4-1
  • 30W. FalconeG
  • 17Danilo VeigaD
  • 4Kialonda GasparD
  • 44Tiago GabrielD
  • 25A. GalloD
  • 20I. IlićM
  • 50S. PierottiM
  • 79O. NgomM
  • 29L. CoulibalyM
  • 99Joël MonteiroM
  • 9N. ŠtulićF
Substitutes
  • 5J. SiebertD
  • 31E. ScottD
  • 33P. PenevG
  • 16O. GandelmanM
  • 11K. N’DriF
  • 3C. NdabaD
  • 14Y. MalehM
  • 18G. JeanD
  • 28Olaf GorterM
Coach: E. Di Francesco

Form going into Cagliari vs Lecce

Cagliari

  • L0-1Inter30 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Parma22 August 2026

Lecce

  • L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Venezia23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Cagliari430142+29
12Lecce420257-26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cagliari vs Lecce

  • 7 September 2026Cagliari 1–0 LecceSerie A
  • 16 February 2026Cagliari 0–2 LecceSerie A
  • 19 September 2025Lecce 1–2 CagliariSerie A
  • 19 January 2025Cagliari 4–1 LecceSerie A
  • 31 August 2024Lecce 1–0 CagliariSerie A
  • 5 May 2024Cagliari 1–1 LecceSerie A

Leading scorers: Cagliari and Lecce

Cagliari

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Lecce

  • L. Coulibaly2 goals1 assists
  • Tiago Gabriel2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.