Udinese vs Lazio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Udinese 1-2 Lazio.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Udinese, 30% draw, 28% Lazio — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Udinese at 42% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Udinese vs Lazio
Line-ups
- 40M. OkoyeG
- 14J. AbankwahD
- 28O. SoletD
- 77E. EbosseD
- 23M. VojvodaM
- 8J. KarlströmM
- 24J. PiotrowskiM
- 11H. KamaraM
- 32J. EkkelenkampM
- 46Unai GómezM
- 9K. DavisF
- 38L. MillerM
- 41B. MrozekG
- 93D. PadelliG
- 45G. VinciatiF
- 6Oier ZarragaM
- 4S. LovrićM
- 15V. BayoF
- 13N. BertolaD
- 30G. ChakvetadzeM
- 35C. MandasG
- 15R. Floriani MussoliniD
- 5D. DoekhiD
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 24K. TaylorM
- 11G. IsaksenF
- 9A. PinamontiF
- 10M. ZaccagniF
- 22M. CancellieriF
- 33Ricardo BordonD
- 71V. FarcomeniM
- 80A. GuðmundssonF
- 29M. LazzariM
- 40E. MottaG
- 14T. NoslinF
- 23PedrazaD
- 28A. PrzyborekM
Form going into Udinese vs Lazio
Udinese
- W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
- D1-1Como22 August 2026
Lazio
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Udinese | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Lazio | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Udinese vs Lazio
- 7 September 2026Udinese 1–2 LazioSerie A
- 27 April 2026Lazio 3–3 UdineseSerie A
- 27 December 2025Udinese 1–1 LazioSerie A
- 10 March 2025Lazio 1–1 UdineseSerie A
- 24 August 2024Udinese 2–1 LazioSerie A
- 11 March 2024Lazio 1–2 UdineseSerie A
Leading scorers: Udinese and Lazio
Udinese
- J. Ekkelenkamp2 goals1 assists
- H. Kamara2 goals1 assists
Lazio
- D. Frattesi3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.