7 September 2026, 23:00 UTC

Vitoria vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result

Barradao, Salvador
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Vitoria 1-0 Gremio.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Vitoria, 27% draw, 27% Gremio — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vitoria at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vitoria97%Draw3%Gremio0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
Pedro Gabriel
38'
C. Pavon
46'
🔁Pedro Gabrielout: Caio Paulista
Erick
48'
48'
Caio Paulista
Caique Goncalves
55'
59'
E. Noriega
⚽Reneassist: Matheusinho
63'
69'
🔁E. Noriegaout: Danilo Barbosa
69'
🔁C. Pavonout: J. Nardoni
69'
🔁M. Villasantiout: J. Enamorado
🔁Erickout: Marinho
72'
78'
🔁Carlos Viniciusout: M. Braithwaite
79'
Gustavo Martins
🔁Caique Goncalvesout: Edenilson
81'
🔁D. Tarziaout: Fabricio
82'
🔁Matheuzinhoout: T. Pochettino
82'
🔁Reneout: Renato Kayzer
90'

Match stats — Vitoria vs Gremio

46%Possession54%
20Shots11
6On target5
6Corners1
1.67xG0.45

Goals against chances

Vitoria1 from 1.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Gremio0 from 0.45 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vitoria 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lucas ArcanjoG
  • 98MatheusinhoD
  • 2E. BritezD
  • 36Luan CandidoD
  • 83JamersonD
  • 95Caique GoncalvesM
  • 88Ze VitorM
  • 33ErickM
  • 10MatheuzinhoM
  • 12D. TarziaM
  • 91ReneF
Substitutes
  • 71YuriG
  • 70FabianoD
  • 18KauanD
  • 69WandersonD
  • 8T. PochettinoM
  • 26EdenilsonM
  • 11OsvaldoF
  • 7MarinhoF
  • 79Renato KayzerF
Coach: Ventura Jair
Gremio 4-1-4-1
  • 1WevertonG
  • 27Diego CaitoD
  • 6Gustavo MartinsD
  • 82WallaceD
  • 54Pedro GabrielD
  • 8E. NoriegaM
  • 11TeteM
  • 20M. VillasantiM
  • 10F. KrovinovicM
  • 7C. PavonM
  • 95Carlos ViniciusF
Substitutes
  • 12Gabriel GrandoG
  • 2Fabian BalbuenaD
  • 18Joao PedroD
  • 38Caio PaulistaD
  • 3Wagner LeonardoD
  • 5J. NardoniM
  • 15Danilo BarbosaM
  • 50Bernardo ZorteaM
  • 65RiquelmeM
Coach: Luis Castro

Form going into Vitoria vs Gremio

Vitoria

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
  • L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
  • W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Flamengo9 August 2026
  • L0-4Palmeiras30 July 2026

Gremio

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
  • L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
  • W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Botafogo29 July 2026

What these results say

  • Vitoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vitoria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gremio conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Gremio had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Vitoria34108163551-1638
18Gremio34910153847-937

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Gremio

  • 19 March 2026Gremio 2–0 VitoriaSerie A
  • 28 September 2025Gremio 3–1 VitoriaSerie A
  • 27 April 2025Vitoria 1–1 GremioSerie A
  • 4 December 2024Vitoria 1–1 GremioSerie A
  • 21 July 2024Gremio 2–0 VitoriaSerie A

The full Vitoria vs Gremio record →

Leading scorers: Vitoria and Gremio

Vitoria

GoalsAssists

  • Rene101

Gremio

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Vinícius111

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vitoria beat Gremio 1–0. The model had made a win for Vitoria its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Rene 63' for Vitoria. On expected goals it finished 1.67–0.45.

How the call on Vitoria v Gremio has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Vitoria's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Vitoria win46%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Gremio win27%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.