7 September 2026, 23:00 UTC

Vitoria vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result

Barradao, Salvador
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Vitoria 1-0 Gremio.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Vitoria, 27% draw, 27% Gremio — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vitoria at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vitoria97%Draw3%Gremio0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
Pedro Gabriel
38'
C. Pavon
46'
🔁Pedro Gabrielout: Caio Paulista
Erick
48'
48'
Caio Paulista
Caique Goncalves
55'
59'
E. Noriega
⚽Reneassist: Matheusinho
63'
69'
🔁E. Noriegaout: Danilo Barbosa
69'
🔁C. Pavonout: J. Nardoni
69'
🔁M. Villasantiout: J. Enamorado
🔁Erickout: Marinho
72'
78'
🔁Carlos Viniciusout: M. Braithwaite
79'
Gustavo Martins
🔁Caique Goncalvesout: Edenilson
81'
🔁D. Tarziaout: Fabricio
82'
🔁Matheuzinhoout: T. Pochettino
82'
🔁Reneout: Renato Kayzer
90'

Match stats — Vitoria vs Gremio

46%Possession54%
20Shots11
6On target5
6Corners1
1.67xG0.45

Goals against chances

Vitoria1 from 1.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Gremio0 from 0.45 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vitoria 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lucas ArcanjoG
  • 98MatheusinhoD
  • 2E. BritezD
  • 36Luan CandidoD
  • 83JamersonD
  • 95Caique GoncalvesM
  • 88Ze VitorM
  • 33ErickM
  • 10MatheuzinhoM
  • 12D. TarziaM
  • 91ReneF
Substitutes
  • 71YuriG
  • 70FabianoD
  • 18KauanD
  • 69WandersonD
  • 8T. PochettinoM
  • 26EdenilsonM
  • 11OsvaldoF
  • 7MarinhoF
  • 79Renato KayzerF
Coach: Ventura Jair
Gremio 4-1-4-1
  • 1WevertonG
  • 27Diego CaitoD
  • 6Gustavo MartinsD
  • 82WallaceD
  • 54Pedro GabrielD
  • 8E. NoriegaM
  • 11TeteM
  • 20M. VillasantiM
  • 10F. KrovinovicM
  • 7C. PavonM
  • 95Carlos ViniciusF
Substitutes
  • 12Gabriel GrandoG
  • 2Fabian BalbuenaD
  • 18Joao PedroD
  • 38Caio PaulistaD
  • 3Wagner LeonardoD
  • 5J. NardoniM
  • 15Danilo BarbosaM
  • 50Bernardo ZorteaM
  • 65RiquelmeM
Coach: Luis Castro

Form going into Vitoria vs Gremio

Vitoria

  • L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
  • L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
  • W1-0Botafogo16 August 2026

Gremio

  • W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
  • L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Vitoria2796122739-1233
16Gremio2777133038-828

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Gremio

  • 7 September 2026Vitoria 1–0 GremioSerie A
  • 19 March 2026Gremio 2–0 VitoriaSerie A
  • 28 September 2025Gremio 3–1 VitoriaSerie A
  • 27 April 2025Vitoria 1–1 GremioSerie A
  • 4 December 2024Vitoria 1–1 GremioSerie A
  • 21 July 2024Gremio 2–0 VitoriaSerie A

Leading scorers: Vitoria and Gremio

Vitoria

  • Rene8 goals1 assists

Gremio

  • Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.