Londrina vs Nautico Recife Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Londrina 2-1 Nautico Recife.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Londrina, 25% draw, 28% Nautico Recife — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Londrina at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Londrina vs Nautico Recife
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Mauricio KozlinskiG
- 75Richarlyson Covre De MelloD
- 5TárikD
- 44Matheus Henrique Dos SantosD
- 20ArturD
- 8Lucas MarquesM
- 11Pablo DyegoM
- 38Geovane MeurerM
- 17João ConiM
- 7Guilherme CachoeiraM
- 99Igor BahiaF
- 32João VitorM
- 55ChumbinhoM
- 21Fernando Asafe De Oliveira SouzaF
- 12ZanellaG
- 77Rafael MonteiroD
- 27Cainã Santos Da SilvaM
- 23Kauã Jonathan Dos Santos FerreiraF
- 55G. GuruceagaG
- 75H. SilvaD
- 34WandersonD
- 13Gabriel Severino de SousaD
- 60Luiz PauloD
- 37Matheus Antonio Uchôa Da SilvaM
- 88CaioM
- 28EversonM
- 18HalanM
- 11Victor AndradeM
- 16Luiz CláudioF
- 48Guilherme Da Silva RamosD
- 17WendellM
- 99Isaque FerreiraF
- 32Leonardo Joventino HonorioG
- 33Nikollas Alves PortellaG
- 31Marcos Gleidson Dos Santos RosaF
Form going into Londrina vs Nautico Recife
Londrina
Serie B
- L0-4away to Botafogo SP5 November 2026
- L1-3America Mineiro1 November 2026
- L1-2away to CRB24 October 2026
- W1-0Cuiaba20 October 2026
Nautico Recife
Serie B
- L0-3CRB8 November 2026
- W1-0Avai31 October 2026
- L0-4away to Juventude26 October 2026
- D0-0away to Goias19 October 2026
What these results say
- Londrina failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Londrina scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Londrina conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nautico Recife failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nautico Recife failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Londrina | 38 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 35 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Londrina vs Nautico Recife
- 23 July 2026Nautico Recife 2–1 LondrinaSerie B
- 10 August 2025Londrina 0–2 Nautico RecifeSerie C
- 24 August 2024Londrina 3–2 Nautico RecifeSerie C
- 23 July 2022Nautico Recife 1–2 LondrinaSerie B
- 10 April 2022Londrina 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 22 September 2021Nautico Recife 1–2 LondrinaSerie B
Leading scorers: Londrina and Nautico Recife
Londrina
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Santos113
Nautico Recife
GoalsAssists
- Vinícius93
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Londrina beat Nautico Recife 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Londrina at 47%. The goals: Halan Gomes Da Silva Tenório 80' for Nautico Recife, Guilherme Cachoeira Silveira 88' for Londrina, Joao Coni 90+1' for Londrina. On expected goals it finished 1.51–0.73.
How the call on Londrina v Nautico Recife has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 49% / 25% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 47% / 25% / 28%: the biggest move is Londrina's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Londrina win47%▼ −2
- Draw25%=
- Nautico Recife win28%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.