8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Virtus Entella vs Modena Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Comunale, Chiavari
Referee: Valerio Crezzini
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Virtus Entella 0-2 Modena.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Virtus Entella, 30% draw, 40% Modena — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Modena at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Virtus Entella0%Draw1%Modena99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Daniele Montevagoassist: Gastón Brugman
10'
⚽Daniele Montevago
Luigi Cuppone
29'
34'
Giacomo Olzer
36'
•Alessandro Bianco
Luca Vignali
38'
45'
🔁Giacomo Olzerout: Luca Bacchin
Andrea Chiappella
46'
Stefano Di Mario
54'
58'
🔁Daniele Montevagoout: Andrea Belotti
🔁M Tirelliout: Giacomo Corona
60'
🔁Luca Vignaliout: Tommaso Annoni
60'
70'
🔁Giuseppe Ambrosinoout: Kleis Bozhanaj
🔁Stefano Di Marioout: Marwane Kritta
70'
🔁Nicolas Previtaliout: Bernat Guiu
70'
Andrea Franzoni
76'
🔁Luigi Cupponeout: Francesco Forte
83'
Andrea Tiritiello
87'
90'
🔁Simone Santoroout: Diego Ronco
90'
🔁Davide Adorniout: Wisdom Acquah

Match stats — Virtus Entella vs Modena

46%Possession54%
9Shots15
2On target7
3Corners3
0.46xG1.4

Goals against chances

Virtus Entella0 from 0.46 xGabout what the chances were worth
Modena2 from 1.40 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Virtus Entella 3-5-2
  • 22F. Del FrateG
  • 3N. PrevitaliD
  • 6A. TiritielloD
  • 15I. MarconiD
  • 94F. MezzoniM
  • 8L. VignaliM
  • 55Lucas FelippeM
  • 24A. FranzoniM
  • 26Stefano Di MarioM
  • 10L. CupponeF
  • 17M. TirelliF
Substitutes
  • 32F. ForteF
  • 18T. AnnoniM
  • 11Bernat GuiuF
  • 70Marwane KrittaD
  • 39M. MotoleseD
  • 23L. ParodiD
  • 12E. TorrielliG
  • 16R. TuricchiaM
  • 33F. D'AlterioG
Coach: A. Chiappella
Modena 4-3-2-1
  • 1L. ChichizolaG
  • 26A. ImputatoD
  • 23F. FolinoD
  • 28D. AdorniD
  • 20B. NielingD
  • 8S. SantoroM
  • 16G. BrugmanM
  • 42A. BiancoM
  • 72G. OlzerM
  • 70G. AmbrosinoM
  • 9D. MontevagoF
Substitutes
  • 29L. BacchinF
  • 11A. BelottiF
  • 17K. BozhanajM
  • 24Antonio CannoniD
  • 27Paulo AzziM
  • 19Brando FontanaF
  • 25A. LaidaniG
  • 12Andrea MaranG
  • 15Martino OderoD
Coach: D. Galloppa

Form going into Virtus Entella vs Modena

Virtus Entella

Serie B

  • L0-2away to Sampdoria31 October 2026
  • D1-1Avellino27 October 2026
  • L0-1Mantova24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Padova17 October 2026

Modena

Serie B

  • D1-1Mantova31 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Vicenza Virtus27 October 2026
  • W3-0Cesena24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Carrarese17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Virtus Entella conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Virtus Entella failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Virtus Entella had two goals or fewer.
  • Modena scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Modena conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Modena had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Virtus Entella112451114-310
2Modena117222010+1023

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Virtus Entella vs Modena

  • 3 March 2026Virtus Entella 2–1 ModenaSerie B
  • 5 October 2025Modena 2–0 Virtus EntellaSerie B
  • 30 January 2022Virtus Entella 0–2 ModenaSerie C - Girone B
  • 25 September 2021Modena 1–2 Virtus EntellaSerie C - Girone B

Leading scorers: Virtus Entella and Modena

Virtus Entella

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Modena

GoalsAssists

  • A. Belotti70
  • G. Ambrosino33
  • G. Caso32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Modena won 2–0 at Virtus Entella. The model had made a win for Modena its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Daniele Montevago 6' for Modena, Daniele Montevago 10' for Modena. Sent off: Andrea Chiappella (Virtus Entella) 46', Andrea Tiritiello (Virtus Entella) 87'. On expected goals it finished 0.46–1.40.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Virtus Entella a 23.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.6% after a win, 22.6% after a draw, 27.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.6%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

For Modena the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 30.2% going in: 34.8% after a win, 28.1% after a draw, 24.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.8%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Virtus Entella v Modena has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 33% / 30% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 30% / 40%: the biggest move is Virtus Entella's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Virtus Entella win30%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Modena win40%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.