Ponte Preta
vs
Operario-PR
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Ponte Preta 0-2 Operario-PR.
Before kick-off the model made it 18% Ponte Preta, 23% draw, 59% Operario-PR — fair odds of 5.56, 4.35 and 1.69.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Ponte Preta 0.99, Operario-PR 2.21.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR
Has the model earned this number?
Operario-PR at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Guilherme VianaG
- 15Gabriel CaranD
- 23S. PalaciosD
- 44Gustavo AlmeidaD
- 32Felipe Di MauroM
- 35Gustavo LopesM
- 6JuanM
- 19DaniloM
- 7Emanuell Silva FerreiraF
- 9BrandãoF
- 8KarlF
- 4Diego Monteiro LeaoD
- 20Nicolas SilvaM
- 22Ryan Henrique Pereira AndradeM
- 21Vitor Ribeiro FernandesF
- 16KawannD
- 18Thevyn Dos Anjos SouzaF
- 2JulioD
- 17MiguelM
- 5Rodrigo SouzaM
- 1Elias Martello CurzelG
- 26MaguinhoD
- 22J. CuenúD
- 43JosephD
- 17Nicolas SchulzD
- 30Caio Bruno de Vicq Chada VilelaM
- 19Leonardo Erig DaitxM
- 25Heitor Luis De Queiroz AlvesM
- 28DuduM
- 18AndréF
- 99Caio DantasF
- 34Renan GustavoD
- 29Anthony Bruno WandratschD
- 41DiegoG
- 23Joao GabrielD
- 51Matheus Oliveira Lopes Da SilvaG
- 16Germano Gabriel Kremer PoniewasF
- 21BrennoM
- 77MaxwellF
Form going into Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR
Ponte Preta
Serie B
- L0-1away to Goias8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Criciuma30 October 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza EC24 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico Goianiense16 October 2026
Operario-PR
Serie B
- W3-2Sport Recife6 November 2026
- L1-2away to Novorizontino1 November 2026
- W1-0Athletic Club MG23 October 2026
- L0-1away to America Mineiro17 October 2026
What these results say
- Ponte Preta did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Ponte Preta conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Ponte Preta had two goals or fewer.
- Operario-PR scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Operario-PR conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 38 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 21 | 81 | -60 | 15 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 38 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 51 | 50 | +1 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR
- 22 July 2026Operario-PR 3–2 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 24 August 2024Ponte Preta 0–1 Operario-PRSerie B
- 11 May 2024Operario-PR 1–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 30 July 2022Ponte Preta 3–0 Operario-PRSerie B
- 16 April 2022Operario-PR 2–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
Leading scorers: Ponte Preta and Operario-PR
Ponte Preta
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Operario-PR
GoalsAssists
- Boschilia134
- Vinícius Diniz71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Operario-PR won 2–0 at Ponte Preta. The goals: Nicolas Schulz 72' for Operario-PR, Dudu 90+2' for Operario-PR. On expected goals it finished 0.87–0.84.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Operario-PR the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Ponte Preta against 2.21 for Operario-PR. Ponte Preta's attack/defence rating is 0.33/2.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.85 for Operario-PR.
How the model reaches 59% for Operario-PR to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Operario-PR to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Ponte Preta's ratings add 14 points and Operario-PR's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Ponte Preta's ratings43%+14
- Operario-PR's ratings59%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.