Casa Pia vs FC Porto Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Casa Pia 1-4 FC Porto.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Casa Pia, 29% draw, 39% FC Porto — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Casa Pia vs FC Porto
Line-ups
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 18GeraldesD
- 3KalyD
- 43David SousaD
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 16SilviM
- 80L. OforiM
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 77B. PauwelsM
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 4João GoulartD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 90CassianoF
- 59Abdu DafeM
- 10RochinhaF
- 20A. JattaF
- 17E. MaurinF
- 19K. PrietoF
- 24S. PérezM
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 74Francisco MouraD
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 7WilliamF
- 19André SilvaF
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 33SouzaD
- 42S. FofanaM
- 29S. GiménezF
- 52Martim FernandesD
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 21D. PrpićD
- 18N. PérezD
- 17Borja SainzF
- 22A. VarelaM
Form going into Casa Pia vs FC Porto
Casa Pia
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Vitória SC6 September 2026
- L0-1Moreirense30 August 2026
- L0-2away to GIL Vicente24 August 2026
- L0-7Benfica17 August 2026
- L0-1away to Maritimo8 August 2026
FC Porto
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Manchester City8 September 2026
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
- W2-0Arouca23 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rio Ave15 August 2026
What these results say
- Casa Pia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Casa Pia failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Casa Pia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 8 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 5 | +22 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs FC Porto
- 2 February 2026Casa Pia 2–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 24 August 2025FC Porto 4–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 12 April 2025Casa Pia 0–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 2 December 2024FC Porto 2–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 21 April 2024Casa Pia 1–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Casa Pia and FC Porto
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Borja Sainz61
- Gabri Veiga54
- André Silva42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Porto won 4–1 at Casa Pia. The model had made a win for FC Porto its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Henrique Araújo (penalty) 43' for Casa Pia, André Silva 45+3' for FC Porto, Jakub Kiwior 60' for FC Porto, Borja Sainz 66' for FC Porto, Santiago Giménez (penalty) 90+1' for FC Porto.
How the call on Casa Pia v FC Porto has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 30% / 30% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 32% / 29% / 39%: the biggest move is Casa Pia's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Casa Pia win32%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- FC Porto win39%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.