1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% 1. FC Köln, 29% draw, 29% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
1. FC Köln at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen
Line-ups
- 1M. SchwäbeG
- 17A. Castro-MontesD
- 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
- 24L. LochoshviliD
- 14G. MensahD
- 30M. BülterM
- 5T. KraußM
- 6E. SkhiriM
- 47M. MooreM
- 37L. MainaM
- 27T. DallingaF
- 9R. AcheF
- 10S. El MalaM
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
- 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
- 2J. SchmiedD
- 28S. SebulonsenD
- 3B. SosaD
- 29J. ThielmannM
- 20R. ZielerG
- 1K. HeinG
- 13ArthurD
- 5A. PieperD
- 32M. FriedlD
- 2O. DemanD
- 15L. ReisM
- 44Y. RegeerM
- 18E. DinkçiM
- 20Chuky San JoséM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 4N. StarkD
- 8M. WeiserD
- 3O. WójcikD
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 29Salim Amani MusahF
- 26C. IttenF
- 38P. ErevbenagieF
Form going into 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
- W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026
Werder Bremen
All competitions we cover
- W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
- L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen
- 12 April 20261. FC Köln 3–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 29 November 2025Werder Bremen 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 16 February 20241. FC Köln 0–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 23 September 2023Werder Bremen 2–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 20 May 2023Werder Bremen 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Köln at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Linton Maina 11' for 1. FC Köln, Niclas Füllkrug 69' for Werder Bremen.
How the call on 1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is 1. FC Köln's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- 1. FC Köln win42%▼ −4
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Werder Bremen win29%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.