12 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga prediction & result

RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Full time1 – 1

Final score: 1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% 1. FC Köln, 29% draw, 29% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Köln at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Köln4%Draw93%Werder Bremen3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Thijs Dallinga (pen)
8'
⚽Linton Mainaassist: Ellyes Skhiri
11'
🔁Thijs Dallingaout: Ragnar Ache
64'
🔁Linton Mainaout: Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
65'
🔁Alessio Castro-Montesout: Sebastian Soraas Sebulonsen
65'
69'
⚽Niclas Füllkrug
70'
🔁Ludovit Reisout: Dariusz Stalmach
72'
Olivier Deman
🔁Mikey Mooreout: Said El Mala
74'
81'
🔁Arthur Augusto De Matos Soaresout: Mick Schmetgens
81'
🔁Niclas Füllkrugout: Cédric Itten
83'
🔁Youri Regeerout: Mitchell Weiser
83'
🔁Eren Dinkciout: Paul Erevbenagie
Gideon Mensah
86'
🔁Tom Kraußout: Paul Okon-Engstler
90'
Paul Okon-Engstler
90+2'

Match stats — 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

47%Possession53%
15Shots14
6On target5
8Corners5

Line-ups

1. FC Köln 4-5-1
  • 1M. SchwäbeG
  • 17A. Castro-MontesD
  • 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
  • 24L. LochoshviliD
  • 14G. MensahD
  • 30M. BülterM
  • 5T. KraußM
  • 6E. SkhiriM
  • 47M. MooreM
  • 37L. MainaM
  • 27T. DallingaF
Substitutes
  • 9R. AcheF
  • 10S. El MalaM
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
  • 2J. SchmiedD
  • 28S. SebulonsenD
  • 3B. SosaD
  • 29J. ThielmannM
  • 20R. ZielerG
Coach: René Wagner
Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. HeinG
  • 13ArthurD
  • 5A. PieperD
  • 32M. FriedlD
  • 2O. DemanD
  • 15L. ReisM
  • 44Y. RegeerM
  • 18E. DinkçiM
  • 20Chuky San JoséM
  • 17M. GrüllM
  • 10N. FüllkrugF
Substitutes
  • 33Mick SchmetgensD
  • 23Dariusz StalmachM
  • 4N. StarkD
  • 8M. WeiserD
  • 3O. WójcikD
  • 30A. SchlagerG
  • 29Salim Amani MusahF
  • 26C. IttenF
  • 38P. ErevbenagieF
Coach: D. Thioune

Form going into 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

1. FC Köln

  • L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
  • W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026

Werder Bremen

  • W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
  • L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
121. FC Köln311157-24
10Werder Bremen311156-14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

  • 12 September 20261. FC Köln 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 12 April 20261. FC Köln 3–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 29 November 2025Werder Bremen 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 16 February 20241. FC Köln 0–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 23 September 2023Werder Bremen 2–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 20 May 2023Werder Bremen 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen

1. FC Köln

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Werder Bremen

  • N. Füllkrug2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.