Nacional vs Alverca Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Nacional 1-3 Alverca.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Nacional, 29% draw, 31% Alverca — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Nacional at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nacional vs Alverca
Line-ups
- 1Renato BellucciG
- 52Wesley GasolinaD
- 33Francisco GonçalvesD
- 38Zé VitorD
- 21W. KokoloD
- 10Daniel JúniorM
- 6Matheus DiasM
- 8Miguel BaezaM
- 11S. GavrielF
- 99Pablo RuanF
- 7M. JensenF
- 50KevynG
- 17F. NavaF
- 9A. ObandoF
- 20Matchoi DjalóF
- 26Joel da SilvaM
- 15C. LabidiM
- 23Mateus IseppeM
- 12Song Min-KyuF
- 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la CruzD
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 4Y. BojangD
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 12I. JamesD
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
- 6D. GuiM
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 19D. CamaraF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 15I. JulianD
- 18Z. KassaryM
- 26Matheus FrançaF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 23André PauloG
- 35RayanM
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 27Toni TamaritF
- 7André VidigalM
Form going into Nacional vs Alverca
Nacional
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Sporting CP5 September 2026
- L2-3Estrela30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Guimaraes23 August 2026
- W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
- D2-2away to Santa Clara10 August 2026
Alverca
All competitions we cover
- L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
- D2-2Estrela15 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto9 August 2026
What these results say
- Nacional failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alverca did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Alverca conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alverca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional vs Alverca
- 18 April 2026Nacional 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 7 December 2025Alverca 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Nacional and Alverca
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alverca won 3–1 at Nacional. The model had leaned towards a win for Nacional at 40% and given a win for Alverca 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Francisco Chissumba 34' for Alverca, Dawda Camara Sankharé 36' for Alverca, Dawda Camara Sankharé 42' for Alverca, Matchoi Djaló 81' for Nacional.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.