31 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Modena vs Mantova Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Referee: Francesco Fourneau
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Modena 1-1 Mantova.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Modena, 27% draw, 24% Mantova — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Modena at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Modena5%Draw92%Mantova3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
•Nicolo Radaelli
26'
Nicolo Radaelli
34'
Simone Trimboli
45'
🔁Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyoout: Rachid Kouda
45'
🔁Ettore Gliozziout: matteo spinacce
45'
🔁Rares Ilieout: Davide Bragantini
45'
🔁Nicolo Radaelliout: Tommaso Del Lungo
Alessandro Bianco
47'
⚽Andrea Belottiassist: Giuseppe Ambrosino
52'
🔁Alessandro Biancoout: Wisdom Acquah
62'
Antonio Imputato
66'
🔁Andrea Belottiout: Giacomo Olzer
70'
79'
🔁Francesco Ruoccoout: Vanja Vlahovic
Gastón Brugman
81'
84'
⚽matteo spinacceassist: Davide Bragantini
🔁Giuseppe Ambrosinoout: Daniele Montevago
86'

Match stats — Modena vs Mantova

53%Possession47%
10Shots12
2On target3
0Corners7
1.36xG0.64

Goals against chances

Modena1 from 1.36 xGabout what the chances were worth
Mantova1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Modena 3-5-2
  • 1L. ChichizolaG
  • 23F. FolinoD
  • 6S. NadorD
  • 20B. NielingD
  • 26A. ImputatoM
  • 42A. BiancoM
  • 16G. BrugmanM
  • 8S. SantoroM
  • 27Paulo AzziM
  • 11A. BelottiF
  • 70G. AmbrosinoF
Substitutes
  • 29L. BacchinF
  • 17K. BozhanajM
  • 24Antonio CannoniD
  • 22L. ConsiglioG
  • 37T. EgharevbaD
  • 25A. LaidaniG
  • 9D. MontevagoF
  • 15Martino OderoD
  • 72G. OlzerM
Coach: D. Galloppa
Mantova 3-4-2-1
  • 22F. BardiG
  • 5B. TomaševićD
  • 29S. CellaD
  • 27A. CastelliniD
  • 17N. RadaelliM
  • 21S. TrimboliM
  • 6J. MboyoM
  • 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
  • 8R. IlieM
  • 19F. RuoccoM
  • 9E. GliozziF
Substitutes
  • 11I. CajazzoM
  • 58Tommaso Del LungoD
  • 1L. GemelloG
  • 25L. IgnacchitiM
  • 80R. KoudaM
  • 75E. KošpoD
  • 13A. MeroniD
  • 7M. SpinaccèF
  • 77F. VesentiniM
Coach: F. Modesto

Form going into Modena vs Mantova

Modena

Serie B

  • W2-1away to Vicenza Virtus27 October 2026
  • W3-0Cesena24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Carrarese17 October 2026

Mantova

Serie B

  • L0-2Cremonese27 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Virtus Entella24 October 2026
  • L0-2Palermo17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Modena117222010+1023
4Mantova115421511+419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Modena vs Mantova

  • 21 March 2026Modena 2–1 MantovaSerie B
  • 20 September 2025Mantova 1–3 ModenaSerie B
  • 1 February 2025Modena 3–1 MantovaSerie B
  • 30 November 2024Mantova 0–0 ModenaSerie B
  • 14 March 2021Modena 1–1 MantovaSerie C - Girone B
  • 16 November 2020Mantova 0–0 ModenaSerie C - Girone B

Leading scorers: Modena and Mantova

Modena

GoalsAssists

  • A. Belotti70
  • G. Ambrosino33
  • G. Caso32

Mantova

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ruocco50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Modena and Mantova drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Modena at 49% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Andrea Belotti 52' for Modena, matteo spinacce 84' for Mantova. On expected goals it finished 1.36–0.64.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Modena a 29.4% chance to finish in the top two: 32.9% after a win, 25.9% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.9%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.

For Mantova the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 4.7% going in: 6.8% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 3.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 4.7%.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Modena v Mantova has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Modena's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Modena win49%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Mantova win24%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.