17 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Ceara vs Juventude Serie B prediction & result

Fortaleza
Referee: Kleber Ariel Goncalves da Silva
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Ceara 2-2 Juventude.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Ceara, 27% draw, 27% Juventude — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ceara at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ceara0%Draw5%Juventude95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Julio Cesarout: Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli
22'
34'
Safira
Éder
45+1'
🔁Renzo Lópezout: Vinícius
45'
58'
Messias Rodrigues da Silva Júnior
68'
⚽Raí da Silva Pessanha (pen)
⚽Saulo Mineiroassist: João Gabriel Santos Batista
70'
72'
Maurício Nogueira Barbieri
74'
🔁Fabio limaout: Lucas Alves
74'
🔁Marcos Pauloout: Juan
78'
⚽Gabriel Piresassist: Raí da Silva Pessanha
81'
🔁Safiraout: Lucas Mineiro
81'
🔁Messias Rodrigues da Silva Júniorout: Gabriel Barbosa Pinheiro
🔁Enzo Lodovicoout: Rian Santana
82'
🔁Vinicius Zanoceloout: Matheus Araujo
82'
86'
🔁Raí da Silva Pessanhaout: Alan Kardec
🔁Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelliout: Lucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares
90+1'
•João Gabriel Santos Batista
90+10'
⚽Saulo Mineiro (pen)
90+16'
Saulo Mineiro
90+16'
90+17'
Pedro Rocha

Match stats — Ceara vs Juventude

47%Possession53%
12Shots9
4On target4
6Corners6
1.86xG1.27

Goals against chances

Ceara2 from 1.86 xGabout what the chances were worth
Juventude2 from 1.27 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ceara 4-2-3-1
  • 1RichardG
  • 18JúlioD
  • 33ÉderD
  • 71Gabriel RochaD
  • 12SanchezD
  • 25Vinicius ZanoceloM
  • 81Joao GabrielM
  • 60Enzo LodovicoM
  • 40RichardM
  • 73Saulo MineiroM
  • 94R. LópezF
Substitutes
  • 44Kaiky Cabral LeãoM
  • 31BryanD
  • 7Giovanni PavaniM
  • 26RichardsonM
  • 23Caíque FrançaG
  • 29VinaM
  • 99LuccaF
  • 77Lenny LobatoF
  • 10L. MugniM
Coach: Daniel Paulista
Juventude 3-4-3
  • 93JandreiG
  • 34Rodrigo SamD
  • 4MessiasD
  • 47Marcos PauloD
  • 13AderlanM
  • 75RaíM
  • 29Gabriel PiresM
  • 16Diogo BarbosaM
  • 11Fábio LimaF
  • 25Alisson SafiraF
  • 10Marcos PauloF
Substitutes
  • 72Lucas AlvesF
  • 97Gabriel PinheiroD
  • 17M. CastroF
  • 3TitiD
  • 5Luan GonçalvesD
  • 6WadsonD
  • 70Juan ChristianF
  • 12Pedro RochaG
  • 8Lucas MineiroM
Coach: Maurício Barbieri

Form going into Ceara vs Juventude

Ceara

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Botafogo SP13 October 2026
  • W1-0Criciuma8 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Avai3 October 2026

Juventude

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2São Bernardo11 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Ponte Preta7 October 2026
  • W3-0Operario-PR2 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Ceara381111163948-944
2Juventude38201175126+2571

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ceara vs Juventude

  • 28 June 2026Juventude 2–0 CearaSerie B
  • 30 August 2025Ceara 0–1 JuventudeSerie A
  • 12 April 2025Juventude 2–1 CearaSerie A
  • 25 November 2023Ceara 1–3 JuventudeSerie B
  • 23 July 2023Juventude 1–0 CearaSerie B

Leading scorers: Ceara and Juventude

Ceara

GoalsAssists

  • Richard74

Juventude

GoalsAssists

  • Raí105

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ceara and Juventude drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Ceara at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Raí da Silva Pessanha (penalty) 68' for Juventude, Saulo Mineiro 70' for Ceara, Gabriel Pires 78' for Juventude, Saulo Mineiro (penalty) 90+16' for Ceara. Sent off: Pedro Rocha (Juventude) 90+17'. On expected goals it finished 1.86–1.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Juventude a 21.9% chance to win the league: 39.1% after a win, 21.8% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 21.8%.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ceara v Juventude has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Ceara's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Ceara win46%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Juventude win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.