17 October 2026, 11:35 UTC

Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban Super League prediction & result

Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao
Referee: Kim Hee-gon, South Korea
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Qingdao Jonoon 0-4 Shenyang Urban.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Qingdao Jonoon, 25% draw, 34% Shenyang Urban — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Qingdao Jonoon at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Qingdao Jonoon0%Draw1%Shenyang Urban99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽G. Mbenzaassist: Chen Binbin
Li Suda
12'
30'
🔁G. Mbenzaout: A. Kouame
41'
Pan Ximing
Jin Yangyang
45+1'
M. Ristic
45+2'
🔁Li Sudaout: Sun Zheng'ao
46'
🔁Liu Guobaoout: Kuang Zhaolei
46'
50'
🔁H. Zhangout: Felipe
🔁Che Shiweiout: Liu Xinyu
57'
57'
⚽Jeffinhoassist: Li Tixiang
Jin Yangyang
67'
Jin Yangyang
67'
🔁C. Strandbergout: Yi Xinyang
69'
🔁M. Edjoumaout: Ngan Cheuk-Pan
75'
79'
🔁Tian Deaoout: Yan Dinghao
80'
🔁D. Mawlanniyazout: Gao Jiarun
80'
🔁Li Tixiangout: Tian Yinong
85'
⚽A. Kouameassist: Yan Dinghao
90+1'
⚽A. Kouame

Match stats — Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban

48%Possession52%
9Shots20
1On target7
4Corners2

Line-ups

Qingdao Jonoon 4-2-3-1
  • 28Pengfei MuG
  • 37Zixian WeiD
  • 4Yangyang JinD
  • 23Long SongD
  • 29Suda LiD
  • 20Ruicong GongM
  • 6Malcom EdjoumaM
  • 21Liu GuobaoM
  • 30Shiwei CheM
  • 34Yonghao JinM
  • 10Carlos StrandbergF
Substitutes
  • 14Zheng'ao SunD
  • 27Zhaolei KuangF
  • 9Xinyu LiuF
  • 52Yi XinyangD
  • 24Ngan Cheuk PanM
  • 43Mewlan JapparG
  • 1Jun LiuG
  • 16Hailong LiD
  • 17Qiao WangD
Shenyang Urban 3-4-3
  • 29Yan ZhangG
  • 34Zhang HongfuD
  • 26Yuan MinchengD
  • 3Ximing PanD
  • 5Dilmurat MawlanyazM
  • 18Tixiang LiM
  • 36De'ao TianM
  • 11Binbin ChenM
  • 10Takahiro KunimotoF
  • 9Guy MbenzaF
  • 47JeffinhoF
Substitutes
  • 7Ange KouaméF
  • 15FelipeM
  • 8Dinghao YanM
  • 27Jiarun GaoD
  • 33Yinong TianM
  • 16Wang Tian'aiG
  • 22Liu GuoboF
  • 30Pang ShenghanD
  • 35Li HaoranD

Form going into Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban

Qingdao Jonoon

Super League

  • L0-3Beijing Guoan9 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Dalian Zhixing5 September 2026

Shenyang Urban

Super League

  • D1-1Wuhan Three Towns11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Tianjin Teda12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

China Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Qingdao Jonoon3064203664-2815
13Shenyang Urban3085174258-1629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban

  • 20 May 2026Shenyang Urban 2–1 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
  • 21 May 2025Shenyang Urban 0–0 Qingdao JonoonFA Cup
  • 3 December 2022Qingdao Jonoon 2–0 Shenyang UrbanLeague One
  • 9 November 2022Shenyang Urban 0–3 Qingdao JonoonLeague One

Leading scorers: Qingdao Jonoon and Shenyang Urban

Qingdao Jonoon

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Shenyang Urban

GoalsAssists

  • Jeffinho122
  • G. Mbenza111

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shenyang Urban won 4–0 at Qingdao Jonoon. The model had leaned towards a win for Qingdao Jonoon at 41% and given a win for Shenyang Urban 34%. The goals: G. Mbenza 7' for Shenyang Urban, Jeffinho 57' for Shenyang Urban, A. Kouame 85' for Shenyang Urban, A. Kouame 90+1' for Shenyang Urban. Sent off: Jin Yangyang (Qingdao Jonoon) 67'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shenyang Urban a 61.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.9% after a win, 69.5% after a draw, 80.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.9%, 27.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Qingdao Jonoon v Shenyang Urban has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 40% / 27% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 25% / 34%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Qingdao Jonoon win41%▲ +1
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Shenyang Urban win34%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.