Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu Super League prediction & result
Final score: Dalian Zhixing 3-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Dalian Zhixing, 25% draw, 24% Sichuan Jiuniu — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Dalian Zhixing at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Line-ups
- 20Weiguo LiuG
- 38Lü ZhuoyiD
- 24Jinhao BiD
- 2Mamadou TraoréD
- 12Feng BoxuanD
- 8Huachen ZhangM
- 4Isnik AlimiM
- 9Pedro DelgadoM
- 10Nicolae StanciuM
- 7Luo JingM
- 30Frank AcheampongF
- 6Yue SongD
- 27Yang MingruiM
- 23Shan HuangM
- 44Feng JinF
- 26Zihao HuangG
- 1Ge PengG
- 33Haiqing CaoD
- 15Jiabao WenD
- 28Kangbo SunD
- 1Jiabao JiG
- 16Miao TangD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 46Huanming ShenD
- 14Li LongD
- 6Junsheng YaoM
- 31Deabeas Owusu-SekyereM
- 36Eden KarzevM
- 19Zhang YufengM
- 11Albion AdemiM
- 7Wesley MoraesF
- 10Dai Wai TsunM
- 29Dalong XiaF
- 49Zhang HaonanG
- 35Minzhe WeiG
- 56Yuheng WangM
- 25Jianfei ZhaoD
- 39Menghui YuM
- 2Tian YifanD
- 17Li NingM
Form going into Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Dalian Zhixing
Super League
- W4-0away to Qingdao Youth Island11 October 2026
- W2-1Qingdao Jonoon5 September 2026
Sichuan Jiuniu
Super League
- D2-2Henan Jianye9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Shandong Luneng5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dalian Zhixing | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 44 | +5 | 52 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 41 | 53 | -12 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu
- 19 May 2026Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
- 14 September 2025Dalian Zhixing 2–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 26 April 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
Leading scorers: Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu
Dalian Zhixing
GoalsAssists
- F. Acheampong124
- N. Stanciu105
Sichuan Jiuniu
GoalsAssists
- Wesley Moraes145
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dalian Zhixing beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3–1. The model had made a win for Dalian Zhixing its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: N. Stanciu 8' for Dalian Zhixing, Luo Jing 42' for Dalian Zhixing, F. Acheampong 52' for Dalian Zhixing, Dai Wai-Tsun 90+1' for Sichuan Jiuniu.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dalian Zhixing a 93.6% chance to finish in the top four: 99.7% after a win, 92.1% after a draw, 82.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.7%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.
For Sichuan Jiuniu the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.9% going in: under 1% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 14.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.4%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Dalian Zhixing v Sichuan Jiuniu has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Dalian Zhixing's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Dalian Zhixing win51%▲ +7
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Sichuan Jiuniu win24%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.