Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Sport Recife 0-2 Fortaleza EC.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Sport Recife, 27% draw, 33% Fortaleza EC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sport Recife at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26Thiago CoutoG
- 27ClaudinhoD
- 28HabraãoD
- 3Marcelo AjulD
- 76RaíD
- 6BielM
- 30Chrystian BarlettaM
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 20D. HernándezM
- 7Patrick de PaulaM
- 9PerottiF
- 23Zé GabrielM
- 21BrennoG
- 25ClaysonM
- 10C. de PenaM
- 77DuduF
- 96EdsonD
- 8Juan AlanoF
- 31MarlonF
- 19Neto PessoaF
- 1João RicardoG
- 23NerisD
- 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
- 6T. CardonaD
- 22MaíltonM
- 32Luiz FernandoM
- 5PierreM
- 20JaílsonM
- 13Maurício Júnior Lima RodriguesM
- 75RodriguinhoM
- 21J. CantilloF
- 10Lucas CrispimM
- 8RonaldM
- 12Kaio HenriqueD
- 11VitinhoF
- 17Nathan FogaçaF
- 3Lucas GazalD
- 16Pedro HenriqueF
- 29RodrigoM
- 77Paulo BayaF
Form going into Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC
Sport Recife
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Atletico Goianiense11 October 2026
- W2-1São Bernardo6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Athletic Club1 October 2026
Fortaleza EC
All competitions we cover
- D2-2CRB12 October 2026
- W1-0away to America Mineiro7 October 2026
- D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sport Recife | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 53 | 42 | +11 | 58 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 65 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC
- 28 June 2026Fortaleza EC 2–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 28 May 2026Sport Recife 0–2 Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste
- 21 May 2026Fortaleza EC 1–2 Sport RecifeCopa do Nordeste
- 30 April 2026Fortaleza EC 2–0 Sport RecifeCopa do Nordeste
- 27 September 2025Fortaleza EC 1–0 Sport RecifeSerie A
Leading scorers: Sport Recife and Fortaleza EC
Sport Recife
GoalsAssists
- Perotti151
- Chrystian Barletta144
Fortaleza EC
GoalsAssists
- Maílton103
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fortaleza EC won 2–0 at Sport Recife. The model had leaned towards a win for Sport Recife at 40% and given a win for Fortaleza EC 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Tomás Cardona 45+3' for Fortaleza EC, Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza 69' for Fortaleza EC. Sent off: Marcelo Ajul (Sport Recife) 45', Jailson Siqueira (Fortaleza EC) 80'. On expected goals it finished 0.78–0.70.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sport Recife a 8.5% chance to finish in the top four: 16.0% after a win, 3.2% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 8.1 points lower than before the match.
For Fortaleza EC the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 70.8% going in: 88.8% after a win, 72.9% after a draw, 56.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.8%, 18 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Sport Recife's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sport Recife win40%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Fortaleza EC win33%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.