16 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense Serie B prediction & result

Campinas
Referee: Leonardo Willers Lorenzatto
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Ponte Preta 1-1 Atletico Goianiense.

Before kick-off the model made it 13% Ponte Preta, 22% draw, 65% Atletico Goianiense — fair odds of 7.69, 4.55 and 1.54.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Goianiense at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ponte Preta2%Draw92%Atletico Goianiense6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Sergio Palacios
9'
32'
Junior Barreto
Danilo Barcelos
38'
⚽David da Horaassist: Rodrigo Souza
42'
45'
🔁Guilherme Costa Marquesout: Matheuzinho
45'
🔁Leandro Vilelaout: Bruno José
51'
Gustavo Coutinho Silva Lopes
🔁Karl Cachoeira Della Vedova Júniorout: Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
61'
63'
🔁Ewerthon Diogenes da Silvaout: João Pedro
Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
73'
🔁David da Horaout: Emanuell Silva Ferreira
74'
76'
🔁Guilherme Lopesout: Yuri Henrique Da Silveira Alves
84'
Yuri Henrique Da Silveira Alves
87'
⚽João Pedroassist: Bruno José
🔁Daniloout: Juan Rodrigues Leopoldino
90'
🔁Gustavo Tellesout: Diego Monteiro Leao
90'
Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
90+3'

Match stats — Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense

19%Possession81%
8Shots33
5On target6
1Corners18
1.17xG2.26

Goals against chances

Ponte Preta1 from 1.17 xGabout what the chances were worth
Atletico Goianiense1 from 2.26 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ponte Preta 4-1-4-1
  • 30ViniciusG
  • 32Felipe Di MauroD
  • 23S. PalaciosD
  • 15Gabriel Caran de OliveiraD
  • 14Danilo BarcelosD
  • 5Rodrigo SouzaM
  • 18David da HoraM
  • 8KarlM
  • 35Gustavo LopesM
  • 19DaniloM
  • 9BrandãoF
Substitutes
  • 4Diego Monteiro LeaoD
  • 17Nicolas SilvaM
  • 13Guilherme Martins FerreiraM
  • 2Ryan Henrique Pereira AndradeM
  • 21Vitor Ribeiro FernandesF
  • 6JuanD
  • 16KawannD
  • 7Emanuell Silva FerreiraF
  • 1Guilherme VianaG
Coach: Gilson Kleina
Atletico Goianiense 4-2-3-1
  • 1Paulo VítorG
  • 2EwerthonD
  • 3J. BarretoD
  • 4Adriano MartinsD
  • 6Guilherme LopesD
  • 5Leandro VilelaM
  • 8NetinhoM
  • 7Soares GeovanyM
  • 10Guilherme MarquesM
  • 11Gustavo MaiaM
  • 9Gustavo CoutinhoF
Substitutes
  • 17PeixotoM
  • 14GebsonD
  • 18João PedroF
  • 20Bruno JoséM
  • 19MatheusinhoM
  • 13Paulo HenriqueG
  • 15CristianoM
  • 16Henrique Freitas AlvesM
  • 12Paulo HenriqueG
Coach: Roger

Form going into Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense

Ponte Preta

All competitions we cover

  • L1-5away to Novorizontino12 October 2026
  • L0-2Juventude7 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Cuiaba3 October 2026

Atletico Goianiense

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Sport Recife11 October 2026
  • L1-3away to CRB7 October 2026
  • W2-0America Mineiro3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Ponte Preta3836292181-6015
6Atletico Goianiense38161394635+1161

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense

  • 28 June 2026Atletico Goianiense 2–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
  • 18 March 2026Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Ponte PretaCopa Do Brasil
  • 15 October 2023Ponte Preta 0–2 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
  • 23 June 2023Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
  • 14 October 2019Atletico Goianiense 0–0 Ponte PretaSerie B

Leading scorers: Ponte Preta and Atletico Goianiense

Ponte Preta

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Atletico Goianiense

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo Coutinho150

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ponte Preta and Atletico Goianiense drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Goianiense at 65% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: David da Hora 42' for Ponte Preta, João Pedro 87' for Atletico Goianiense. Sent off: Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade (Ponte Preta) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 1.17–2.26.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Goianiense a 13.1% chance to finish in the top four: 15.9% after a win, 5.8% after a draw, 2.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.8%, 7.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ponte Preta v Atletico Goianiense has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 17% / 26% / 57% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 13% / 22% / 65%: the biggest move is Atletico Goianiense's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Ponte Preta win13%▼ −4
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. Atletico Goianiense win65%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.