Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Hellas Verona 2-2 Catanzaro.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Hellas Verona, 26% draw, 24% Catanzaro — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Hellas Verona at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34S. PerilliG
- 4G. ZappaD
- 37N. CalabreseD
- 27P. DawidowiczD
- 71D. De BattistiD
- 17A. Le BorgneM
- 24A. BernedeM
- 14D. LivramentoM
- 44E. IannoniM
- 9A. SarrM
- 25D. MosqueraF
- 81C. EkubanF
- 35S. CerboneF
- 70F. ChamD
- 21A. HarrouiM
- 20G. KastanosM
- 1N. LealiG
- 23N. LellaM
- 19S. MulattieriF
- 79K. SezonienkoF
- 22M. PigliacelliG
- 24M. RuggeroD
- 4Matias AntoniniD
- 3M. ImperialeD
- 27A. CandelaM
- 98N. MostiM
- 10J. PetriccioneM
- 14S. GiovaneM
- 29F. Di FrancescoM
- 31E. PecorinoF
- 9P. IemmelloF
- 91G. ArditiF
- 30G. AlesiF
- 7N. BusoF
- 77M. D'AlessandroF
- 93M. DorvalD
- 62R. FrosininiD
- 19N. KoffiF
- 1C. MariettaG
- 20S. PafundiM
Form going into Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro
Hellas Verona
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Modena11 October 2026
- W2-1Vicenza Virtus20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benevento11 September 2026
- W5-0Arezzo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Padova29 August 2026
Catanzaro
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Mantova11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sampdoria19 September 2026
- W1-0Carrarese12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Pisa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Hellas Verona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hellas Verona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hellas Verona had three goals or more.
- Catanzaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hellas Verona | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 16 |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hellas Verona vs Catanzaro
- 14 August 2021Hellas Verona 3–0 CatanzaroCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Hellas Verona and Catanzaro
Hellas Verona
GoalsAssists
- D. Mosquera70
Catanzaro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hellas Verona and Catanzaro drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Hellas Verona at 50% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Antonio Candela 11' for Catanzaro, Daniel Mosquera 37' for Hellas Verona, Daniel Mosquera 67' for Hellas Verona, Emanuele Pecorino (penalty) 75' for Catanzaro. On expected goals it finished 1.97–1.24.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hellas Verona a 32.9% chance to finish in the top four: 36.4% after a win, 29.8% after a draw, 26.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 29.8%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.
For Catanzaro the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.8% going in: 11.6% after a win, 14.8% after a draw, 17.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.8%, 1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hellas Verona v Catanzaro has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is Hellas Verona's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Hellas Verona win50%▲ +6
- Draw26%▼ −3
- Catanzaro win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.