11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Premijer Liga prediction & result

Gradski stadion Bijeljina, Bijeljina
Referee: F. Jelic
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Radnik Bijeljina 3-1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Radnik Bijeljina, 27% draw, 39% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Radnik Bijeljina99%Draw1%Zeljeznicar Sarajevo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽M. Stevanovic (OG)
M. Andacic
41'
🔁A. Konateout: V. Bradonjic
46'
⚽V. Bradonjicassist: M. Ghorzi
48'
57'
R. Piloto
⚽M. Karamarko (OG)
64'
68'
M. Karamarko
70'
S. Jovanovic
72'
🔁G. Cunhaout: E. Dragovic
72'
🔁S. Radovacout: M. Huskovic
🔁F. Agyemangout: H. Karjasevic
75'
🔁M. Andacicout: B. Meyapya
79'
D. Cosic
80'
84'
🔁M. Sosicout: A. Korora
84'
🔁A. Kulisout: Y. Dabo
⚽V. Bradonjic
85'
V. Bradonjic
85'
🔁O. Klenpicout: I. Boonen
90'
🔁A. Markovicout: B. Dimitric
90'

Line-ups

Radnik Bijeljina
  • 1D. Markovic
  • 6F. Agyemang
  • 11O. Klenpic
  • 14A. Markovic
  • 22M. Sukilovic
  • 26D. Cosic
  • 29D. Teodorovic
  • 32M. Andacic
  • 66M. Stevanovic
  • 70A. Konate
  • 77M. Ghorzi
Substitutes
  • 27V. Kjosevski
  • 5B. Meyapya
  • 7I. Boonen
  • 10E. Crnko
  • 16B. Dimitric
  • 17L. Cveticanin
  • 18I. Spaic
  • 19H. Karjasevic
  • 20V. Bradonjic
Coach: Bojan Krulj
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
  • 1T. Abdulahovic
  • 30M. Karamarko
  • 5A. Ibrisimovic
  • 4M. Karamarko
  • 32S. Jovanovic
  • 6A. Pejic
  • 88S. Radovac
  • 90R. Piloto
  • 10M. Sosic
  • 49G. Cunha
  • 19A. Kulis
Substitutes
  • 99A. Cosic
  • 27D. Milosevic
  • 29M. Huskovic
  • 25D. Kelmendi
  • 22A. Gojak
  • 24A. Rascic
  • 7Y. Dabo
  • 20G. Troupee
  • 28J. Freeman
Coach: David Muslera

Premijer Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Radnik Bijeljina132561926-711
6Zeljeznicar Sarajevo133461321-813

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

  • 11 April 2026Radnik Bijeljina 0–3 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
  • 13 December 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0–0 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
  • 5 October 2025Radnik Bijeljina 1–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
  • 27 July 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–1 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
  • 31 May 2025Radnik Bijeljina 1–2 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga

Leading scorers: Radnik Bijeljina and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Radnik Bijeljina

GoalsAssists

  • D. Teodorović21
  • V. Bradonjić20
  • M. Ghorzi11

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

GoalsAssists

  • M. Husković20
  • Rodrigo Piloto20
  • A. Pejić12

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Radnik Bijeljina beat Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 39% and given a win for Radnik Bijeljina 34%. The goals: M. Stevanovic (own goal) 15' for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, V. Bradonjic 48' for Radnik Bijeljina, M. Karamarko (own goal) 64' for Radnik Bijeljina, V. Bradonjic 85' for Radnik Bijeljina.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Radnik Bijeljina a 71.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 66.3% after a win, 74.7% after a draw, 75.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.3%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.

For Zeljeznicar Sarajevo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 47.8% going in: 54.4% after a win, 45.8% after a draw, 42.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.1%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premijer Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Radnik Bijeljina v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Radnik Bijeljina win34%=
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win39%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.