18 October 2026, 14:15 UTC

Celta Vigo vs Alaves La Liga prediction & result

Vigo
Referee: Jose Luis Munuera Montero
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Celta Vigo, 30% draw, 27% Alaves — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celta Vigo at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celta Vigo97%Draw3%Alaves0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Sebastián Cáceres
15'
45'
Toni Martínez
🔁Ilaix Moribaout: Aleix Febas
45'
🔁Williot Swedbergout: Javier Rueda García
45'
⚽Ferran Jutglàassist: Javier Rodríguez Galiano
53'
62'
🔁Jonny Ottoout: Hugo Novoa Ramos
62'
🔁Toni Martínezout: Mariano Díaz
62'
🔁Carles Aleñáout: Denis Suárez
🔁Couhaib Driouechout: Iago Aspas
70'
🔁Hugo Burcioout: Andrés Antañón Vieites
70'
⚽Javier Rodríguez Galianoassist: Iago Aspas
71'
🔁Sebastián Cáceresout: Marcos Alonso
77'
87'
⚽Hugo Novoa Ramosassist: Mariano Díaz
88'
🔁Abderrahmane Rebbachout: Aitor Mañas
88'
🔁Antonio Blancoout: Ander Guevara

Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Alaves

48%Possession52%
6Shots20
3On target9
0Corners4
0.91xG1.05

Goals against chances

Celta Vigo2 from 0.91 xGmore than the chances were worth
Alaves1 from 1.05 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celta Vigo 3-4-3
  • 13I. RaduG
  • 20Javi RodríguezD
  • 18Yoel LagoD
  • 21S. CáceresD
  • 5Sergio CarreiraM
  • 30H. BurcioM
  • 6I. MoribaM
  • 23Hugo ÁlvarezM
  • 24C. DriouechF
  • 9Ferran JutglàF
  • 19W. SwedbergF
Substitutes
  • 28Andrés AntañónM
  • 3Marcos AlonsoD
  • 31Ángel ArcosF
  • 10Iago AspasF
  • 1A. BayındırG
  • 4A. FayeD
  • 14Aleix FebasM
  • 22Javi GalánD
  • 16Hugo GonzálezF
Coach: Claudio Giráldez
Alaves 5-3-2
  • 1SiveraG
  • 14N. TenagliaD
  • 17JonnyD
  • 16V. KoskiD
  • 2N. ValentiniD
  • 21A. RebbachD
  • 19Pablo IbáñezM
  • 8Antonio BlancoM
  • 10Carles AleñáM
  • 11Toni MartínezF
  • 15L. BoyéF
Substitutes
  • 24Selu DialloM
  • 9M. DíazF
  • 3YusiD
  • 6GuevaraM
  • 20Aitor MañasF
  • 12Hugo NovoaF
  • 27X. OlaizD
  • 13A. GiménezG
  • 22Miguel RodríguezF
Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

Form going into Celta Vigo vs Alaves

Celta Vigo

La Liga

  • D0-0away to Elche11 October 2026

Alaves

La Liga

  • L1-2Atletico Madrid10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Celta Vigo122731010013
12Alaves123451517-213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Alaves

  • 22 March 2026Celta Vigo 3–4 AlavesLa Liga
  • 22 November 2025Alaves 0–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • 27 January 2025Alaves 1–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • 16 August 2024Celta Vigo 2–1 AlavesLa Liga
  • 27 April 2024Alaves 3–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • 28 September 2023Celta Vigo 1–1 AlavesLa Liga

The full Celta Vigo vs Alaves record →

Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Alaves

Celta Vigo

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Alaves

GoalsAssists

  • L. Boyé50
  • M. Díaz44

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Celta Vigo beat Alaves 2–1. The model had made a win for Celta Vigo its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ferran Jutglà 53' for Celta Vigo, Javier Rodríguez Galiano 71' for Celta Vigo, Hugo Novoa Ramos 87' for Alaves. On expected goals it finished 0.91–1.05.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Celta Vigo a 7.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.1% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 10.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.1%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

For Alaves the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.5% going in: 3.9% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 8.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.9%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Celta Vigo v Alaves has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Celta Vigo's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Celta Vigo win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Alaves win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.