Malaga vs Real Sociedad La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Malaga 2-5 Real Sociedad.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Malaga, 27% draw, 47% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Malaga vs Real Sociedad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 31RafitaD
- 20Fernando CaleroD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 12José SalinasD
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 8Carlos DotorM
- 18Pablo MartínezM
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 9ChupeF
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 7H. AbaidaF
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 22Dani LorenzoM
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 11Joaquín MuñozF
- 5Álex PastorD
- 3PugaD
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 22Héctor FortD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 19M. SarrD
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 14T. KuboM
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 11Gonçalo GuedesF
- 17Sergio GómezF
- 28A. LebarbierM
- 29Alex GarciaF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 12J. OchiengF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 24L. SučićM
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
Form going into Malaga vs Real Sociedad
Malaga
La Liga
- D1-1Espanyol9 October 2026
Real Sociedad
La Liga
- W3-2Deportivo La Coruna11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Real Sociedad
- 7 January 2024Malaga 0–1 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
- 22 April 2018Malaga 2–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 10 December 2017Real Sociedad 0–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 14 May 2017Real Sociedad 2–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 16 January 2017Malaga 0–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 27 February 2016Real Sociedad 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Malaga and Real Sociedad
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić40
- O. Óskarsson40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Sociedad won 5–2 at Malaga. The model had made a win for Real Sociedad its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Takefusa Kubo 3' for Real Sociedad, Orri Steinn Óskarsson 26' for Real Sociedad, Adrian Nino 54' for Malaga, Mikel Oyarzabal 59' for Real Sociedad, Pablo Martínez Andrés 66' for Malaga, Mikel Oyarzabal 67' for Real Sociedad, Gonçalo Guedes 73' for Real Sociedad. On expected goals it finished 1.10–2.43.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Malaga a 78.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 71.6% after a win, 78.7% after a draw, 81.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 81.5%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.
For Real Sociedad the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 17.3% going in: 19.7% after a win, 15.3% after a draw, 11.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.7%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Malaga v Real Sociedad has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 28% / 29% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is Real Sociedad's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Malaga win26%▼ −2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Real Sociedad win47%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.