18 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Valladolid vs Eldense Segunda División prediction & result

Valladolid
Referee: J. Sanchez
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Valladolid 2-3 Eldense.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Valladolid, 29% draw, 32% Eldense — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Valladolid at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Valladolid3%Draw93%Eldense4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Adrian Arnuassist: Julien Ponceau
23'
🔁Juan Miguel Latasaout: Victor Barbera
30'
34'
Fidel
41'
⚽Jorge Rastrojoassist: Javi Martínez
45+1'
⚽Aingeru Olabarrietaassist: Ramón Vila Rovira
Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda
45+5'
45+5'
Justin Smith
Víctor Fernández
57'
62'
Jorge Rastrojo
64'
🔁Jorge Rastrojoout: Mariano Emilio Carmona Cerezo
64'
🔁Justin Smithout: Marcos Bustillo Aquesolo
🔁Álvaro Pérez Campoout: Iván Alejo
66'
🔁Thiago Ezequiel Ojedaout: Tay Abed
66'
Víctor Fernández
72'
73'
🔁Javi Martínezout: Jorge Martin Camunas
🔁Julien Ponceauout: Kaj de Rooij
76'
🔁Adrian Arnuout: Robin van Duiven
76'
78'
Juan Larios López
81'
🔁Juan Larios Lópezout: Iker Recio Ortega
81'
🔁Fidelout: Manuel Nieto
Iván Alejo
82'
⚽Victor Barberaassist: Tay Abed
83'
90+5'
⚽Mariano Emilio Carmona Cerezoassist: Aingeru Olabarrieta

Match stats — Valladolid vs Eldense

57%Possession43%
16Shots13
5On target5
13Corners2
1.52xG2.77

Goals against chances

Valladolid2 from 1.52 xGabout what the chances were worth
Eldense3 from 2.77 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Valladolid 4-1-3-2
  • 1Álvaro AcevesG
  • 2TrilliD
  • 15Pablo TomeoD
  • 4David TorresD
  • 27Iván GarrielD
  • 24S. JurićM
  • 8T. OjedaM
  • 30Víctor FernándezM
  • 21J. PonceauM
  • 9Juanmi LatasaF
  • 19Adrian ArnuncioF
Substitutes
  • 16Álex BalboaM
  • 14Iván AlejoF
  • 3Homam AhmedD
  • 17Victor BarberáF
  • 11Yeray CabanzónF
  • 18ClercD
  • 6M. LachuerM
  • 13Dani MartínG
  • 5Ramón MartínezD
Coach: Fran Escribá
Eldense 4-2-3-1
  • 1Ramón VilaG
  • 17Jesús ClementeD
  • 5Alex SerradellD
  • 4F. SmandD
  • 3Juan LariosD
  • 15Carlos GuiraoM
  • 14J. SmithM
  • 10FidelM
  • 24Javi MartínezM
  • 33Aingeru OlabarrietaM
  • 7Jorge RastrojoF
Substitutes
  • 11Manu NietoF
  • 23Jordi MartínD
  • 19A. IbarrondoF
  • 9M. CarmonaF
  • 8Marcos BustilloM
  • 22J. YandaD
  • 2Iker RecioD
  • 29Dinis RodriguesF
  • 13JuanpaG
Coach: Javi Calleja

Form going into Valladolid vs Eldense

Valladolid

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0Albacete12 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Las Palmas4 October 2026
  • W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
  • D1-1away to AD Ceuta FC20 September 2026
  • L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026

Eldense

Segunda División

  • W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Valladolid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Valladolid had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Valladolid145362221+118
16Eldense134271319-614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Eldense

  • 13 April 2024Valladolid 1–0 EldenseSegunda División
  • 4 October 2023Eldense 0–1 ValladolidSegunda División

Leading scorers: Valladolid and Eldense

Valladolid

GoalsAssists

  • Adrian Arnuncio51

Eldense

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Eldense won 3–2 at Valladolid. The model had leaned towards a win for Valladolid at 39% and given a win for Eldense 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Adrian Arnu 23' for Valladolid, Jorge Rastrojo 41' for Eldense, Aingeru Olabarrieta 45+1' for Eldense, Victor Barbera 83' for Valladolid, Mariano Emilio Carmona Cerezo 90+5' for Eldense. Sent off: Víctor Fernández (Valladolid) 72'. On expected goals it finished 1.52–2.77.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valladolid a 7.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.4% after a win, 8.8% after a draw, 9.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.5%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Valladolid v Eldense has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 34% / 31% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Valladolid's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Valladolid win39%▲ +5
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Eldense win32%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.