18 October 2026, 14:15 UTC

Granada CF vs Cadiz Segunda División prediction & result

Granada
Referee: R. Sanchez
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Granada CF 2-0 Cadiz.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Granada CF, 26% draw, 25% Cadiz — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Granada CF at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Granada CF99%Draw1%Cadiz0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Rubén Alcaraz
44'
⚽Gerard Gumbauassist: Sergio Rodelas Pintor
50'
56'
🔁Aimen Moueffekout: Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi
56'
🔁Antonio Corderoout: Borja Vazquez
🔁Baïla Dialloout: Diego Varela Pampín
62'
67'
🔁Marc-Olivier Douéout: Jandro Orellana
67'
🔁Beñat de Jesús Domingoout: Juan Díaz Peregrina
⚽Jorge Pascualassist: Pedro Alemañ Serna
67'
🔁Rubén Alcarazout: Diego Hormigo
73'
🔁Sergio Rodelas Pintorout: Owen Emeka
73'
🔁Jorge Pascualout: Chinaza Onouha
73'
73'
🔁Javier Castroout: Bojan Kovacevic
79'
Vladyslav Kopotun
🔁José Manuel Arnáizout: Mario Jiménez Gambín
83'
89'
Borja Vazquez

Match stats — Granada CF vs Cadiz

54%Possession46%
11Shots8
2On target1
4Corners6
0.89xG0.56

Goals against chances

Granada CF2 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cadiz0 from 0.56 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Granada CF 4-3-3
  • 1Alberto FloresG
  • 18Sergio LópezD
  • 30Juan José Flores CastroD
  • 5Manu LamaD
  • 22B. DialloD
  • 6GumbauM
  • 4Rubén AlcarazM
  • 8Pedro AlemañM
  • 7Sergio RodelasF
  • 10Jorge PascualF
  • 11José ArnáizF
Substitutes
  • 2Pau CasadesúsD
  • 35B. DembeleD
  • 37Íker GarcíaG
  • 33A. GarciaD
  • 23B. GimberD
  • 3Diego HormigoD
  • 27M. GambinM
  • 36O. M. ChukwuemekaF
  • 19Chinaza OnouhaF
Coach: José Rojo Martín
Cadiz 4-2-3-1
  • 1David GilG
  • 2Beñat de JesúsD
  • 4Javi CastroD
  • 6Manu FernándezD
  • 3Sergio ArribasD
  • 5M. DouéM
  • 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
  • 24Ibon SánchezM
  • 17A. MoueffekM
  • 16Antonio CorderoM
  • 21V. KopotunF
Substitutes
  • 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
  • 13Jokin EzkietaG
  • 9Álvaro GarcíaF
  • 22Cristian GutiérrezD
  • 19Urko IzetaF
  • 14B. KovačevićD
  • 10Javi OntiverosM
  • 18Jandro OrellanaM
  • 23Damián RodríguezM
Coach: Celades

Form going into Granada CF vs Cadiz

Granada CF

Segunda División

  • W1-0away to Burgos12 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026

Cadiz

Segunda División

  • L0-1Sporting Gijon11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Granada CF127232014+623
20Cadiz132471618-210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Granada CF vs Cadiz

  • 5 August 2026Cadiz 2–0 Granada CFFriendlies Clubs
  • 24 January 2026Cadiz 1–2 Granada CFSegunda División
  • 25 October 2025Granada CF 0–0 CadizSegunda División
  • 26 July 2025Cadiz 1–1 Granada CFFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 March 2025Cadiz 1–0 Granada CFSegunda División
  • 23 November 2024Granada CF 0–0 CadizSegunda División

Leading scorers: Granada CF and Cadiz

Granada CF

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Pascual40

Cadiz

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Cordero52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Granada CF beat Cadiz 2–0. The model had made a win for Granada CF its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gerard Gumbau 50' for Granada CF, Jorge Pascual 67' for Granada CF. On expected goals it finished 0.89–0.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cadiz a 43.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.5% after a win, 43.0% after a draw, 45.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.9%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Granada CF v Cadiz has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 49% / 26% / 25%: the biggest move is Granada CF's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Granada CF win49%▲ +7
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Cadiz win25%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.