Sportivo Luqueno vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Sportivo Luqueno 3-2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Sportivo Luqueno, 26% draw, 20% Club Sp. San Lorenzo — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sportivo Luqueno at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sportivo Luqueno vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. CampisiG
- 22S. OcamposD
- 2M. BarretoD
- 6F. WiechniakD
- 28A. BalbuenaD
- 21M. OjedaM
- 14F. BenitezM
- 10G. BogadoM
- 25J. RamosM
- 9W. GonzálezF
- 20I. MaggiF
- 29T. MuroM
- 23A. CanteroD
- 8A. MaízM
- 34Á. MartínezM
- 26O. LopezD
- 37L. ComasM
- 7K. PereiraF
- 19M. PérezF
- 30T. FrancoM
- 31L. FrancoG
- 29M. GarciaD
- 19Luis Fernando Cáceres MacielD
- 5T. ParedesD
- 20D. Meza MontielD
- 28P. GerzelM
- 32F. AragónM
- 21H. GonzalezM
- 27Elias OrtizM
- 23M. FerreiraF
- 9J. BarriosF
- 24Matias AgueroD
- 8R. AmarillaF
- 33Gustavo Luis Centurion VillalbaG
- 39Lucas Andres Cohener GonzalezM
- 4A. DoldánD
- 2L. EstecheD
- 25K. FernándezM
- 22K. FerreiraM
- 13Isaias FretesF
Form going into Sportivo Luqueno vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Sportivo Luqueno
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Cerro Porteno10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sportivo Trinidense5 October 2026
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sportivo Trinidense10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Club Guarani3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sportivo Luqueno | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 22 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Luqueno vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- 9 August 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 17 May 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 13 March 2026Sportivo Luqueno 1–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 2 October 2022Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Intermedia
- 24 June 2022Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Intermedia
- 12 November 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Luqueno and Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Sportivo Luqueno
GoalsAssists
- I. Maggi52
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- M. Ferreira51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sportivo Luqueno beat Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3–2. The model had made a win for Sportivo Luqueno its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón 7' for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, Walter González 42' for Sportivo Luqueno, Franco Aragón 45+6' for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, M. Barreto 75' for Sportivo Luqueno, Giovanni Bogado (penalty) 84' for Sportivo Luqueno. On expected goals it finished 3.51–0.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sportivo Luqueno a 61.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 54.2% after a win, 69.7% after a draw, 76.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.2%, 7.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sportivo Luqueno v Club Sp. San Lorenzo has moved
First published on 5 Oct at 50% / 28% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Sportivo Luqueno's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Sportivo Luqueno win54%▲ +4
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo win20%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.